FPL agentSeason 2026-27
Pilot model
glm-5.3:cloud · temp 0
Snapshot
GW9 · 28 Oct, 21:26
← History

Answer

Asked during eval run post-gw6-01 · case recommendation-hold-and-captain · snapshot GW7

Question

Using this snapshot and the full model over GW7 to GW10, with a 2-point transfer threshold and no hits allowed, should I transfer or hold for GW7? Give the gain, threshold and recommended captain. Explain whether the gain covers the whole horizon or just GW7.

Answer

completed trace b35b0686

For the period from GW7 to GW10, the recommendation is to HOLD for GW7.

The projected gain for making a transfer is 1.69, which is below your 2.0 threshold.

  • Gain: 1.69
  • Threshold: 2.0
  • Recommended Captain: Haaland (GW7)

The calculated gain covers the entire horizon (GW7 to GW10), as the projection compares the current squad's path against the optimal transfer path across the full period.

Run

Status
completed
Target gameweek
GW7
Model
gemma4:12b
Temperature
n/a
Model calls
2 of 4
Tool calls
1
Latency
33.7 s
Tokens
4,096 in · 581 out
Snapshot ID
20261014_130603_post-gw6-baseline_e28400ad-dirty

Checks

  • Tool selectionpass
  • Argumentspass

Hand review

  • Task successpass
  • Fact recallpass
  • Groundednesspass

AI-assisted review. Correct. - Called `get_recommendation` with `{"horizon":4,"max_hits":0,"model":"full","threshold":2}`; the call completed. - The tool returned `gain: 1.6935547302551868` and `make_transfers: false`. Its GW7 plan has no buys, sells or hits, and captain ID 411 resolves to Haaland. - The gain compares the discounted transfer and hold objectives across the horizon; it is not a realised GW7 score. - The hold option forbids transfers in the first GW only. Its later transfers remain provisional; the final answer did not claim that holding forbids transfers throughout the horizon.

Tool calls

1  get_recommendationcompleted
{
  "horizon": 4,
  "max_hits": 0,
  "model": "full",
  "threshold": 2
}
Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, actual_gws, threshold, allowed_hits, plan_objective, hold_objective, gain, make_transfers, players, selected_gw_plans, assumptions. Show full result 
{
  "snapshot_id": "20261014_130603_post-gw6-baseline_e28400ad-dirty",
  "as_of": "2026-10-14T13:06:03.444089Z",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "target_gw": 7,
  "model": "full",
  "actual_gws": [
    7,
    8,
    9,
    10
  ],
  "threshold": 2.0,
  "allowed_hits": 0,
  "plan_objective": 185.5307426389963,
  "hold_objective": 183.8371879087411,
  "gain": 1.6935547302551868,
  "make_transfers": false,
  "players": [
    {
      "element_id": 8,
      "player_name": "Calafiori",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 59,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 12,
      "player_name": "Saka",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 96,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 15,
      "player_name": "Ødegaard",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 68,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 40,
      "player_name": "Rogers",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 79,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 82,
      "player_name": "Kelleher",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Brentford",
      "current_price": 50,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 109,
      "player_name": "Verbruggen",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 46,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 165,
      "player_name": "João Pedro",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 78,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 173,
      "player_name": "Thomas",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Coventry City",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 175,
      "player_name": "van Ewijk",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Coventry City",
      "current_price": 39,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 204,
      "player_name": "Mitchell",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Crystal Palace",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 249,
      "player_name": "Barry",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Everton",
      "current_price": 57,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 290,
      "player_name": "Slater",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Hull City",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 305,
      "player_name": "Davis",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Ipswich Town",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 346,
      "player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Leeds",
      "current_price": 60,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 391,
      "player_name": "Gvardiol",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 58,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 411,
      "player_name": "Haaland",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 156,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 426,
      "player_name": "B.Fernandes",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Man Utd",
      "current_price": 119,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 427,
      "player_name": "Mbeumo",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Man Utd",
      "current_price": 79,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 497,
      "player_name": "Dubravka",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Spurs",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 557,
      "player_name": "Tzolis",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 63,
      "status": "i",
      "news": "Hamstring injury - Expected back 1 Nov"
    }
  ],
  "selected_gw_plans": [
    {
      "gw": 7,
      "buys": [],
      "sells": [],
      "team_xi": [
        109,
        8,
        391,
        204,
        426,
        15,
        40,
        290,
        411,
        346,
        165
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        497,
        175,
        305,
        557
      ],
      "captain": 411,
      "vice_captain": 426,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 49.22527786861716
    },
    {
      "gw": 8,
      "buys": [
        82,
        173,
        427
      ],
      "sells": [
        391,
        497,
        557
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        82,
        8,
        173,
        305,
        426,
        427,
        15,
        40,
        411,
        165,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        204,
        175,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 426,
      "vice_captain": 427,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 52.92971344999765
    },
    {
      "gw": 9,
      "buys": [],
      "sells": [],
      "team_xi": [
        82,
        173,
        305,
        8,
        426,
        427,
        40,
        15,
        411,
        165,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        175,
        290,
        204
      ],
      "captain": 411,
      "vice_captain": 426,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 50.428814527128715
    },
    {
      "gw": 10,
      "buys": [
        12,
        249
      ],
      "sells": [
        40,
        165
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        109,
        8,
        305,
        173,
        12,
        426,
        427,
        15,
        249,
        411,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        82,
        204,
        175,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 12,
      "vice_captain": 8,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 56.428275440122505
    }
  ],
  "assumptions": [
    "Uses frozen prices, squad and projections; no transfer is executed.",
    "The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only.",
    "Objectives include GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties.",
    "Later GW transfers are provisional plans, not actions to take now."
  ]
}