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Answer
Asked during eval run step19-deepseek-v4-1-flash-cloud-t0-r1 · case recommendation-transfers-and-captain · snapshot GW9
Question
Using the full model over GW9 to GW12, with a 2-point transfer threshold and no hits allowed, should I transfer or hold for GW9? Give the gain, threshold, immediate buys and sells, starting XI, captain, vice-captain and ordered bench. Explain what period the gain covers.
Answer
completed trace 091d1c08Verdict: transfer — the gain clears the threshold
Using the full model over GW9–GW12 with a 2.0-point threshold and no hits allowed, make_transfers is true.
- Gain: 3.78 points
- Threshold: 2.00 points
- Plan objective 183.52 vs hold objective 179.74 — so the transfer plan beats holding.
What the gain covers: it is the difference between the transfer plan's and the hold plan's objectives across the whole four-GW horizon (GW9, 10, 11 and 12), not a GW9-only figure. The objectives are discounted (later GWs count for less), include bench weighting and any hit penalties; starting-XI expected points and chip gains are reported separately. So 3.78 is a multi-GW estimate, and the later-GW transfers in it are provisional.
Immediate GW9 moves (no hits, hits = 0)
Buy
- Raya (Arsenal, GKP) — £6.2m
- Barry (Everton, FWD) — £5.6m
- Mbeumo (Man Utd, MID) — £7.9m
Sell
- João Pedro (Chelsea, FWD) — £7.8m — flagged injured: thigh, unknown return
- B.Fernandes (Man Utd, MID) — £11.7m
- Dubravka (Spurs, GKP) — £4.0m
GW9 starting XI
- Raya (GKP)
- Gvardiol (DEF)
- Davis (DEF)
- van Ewijk (DEF)
- Mbeumo (MID)
- Rogers (MID)
- Ødegaard (MID)
- Groß (MID)
- Haaland (FWD)
- Calvert-Lewin (FWD)
- Barry (FWD)
- Captain: Haaland
- Vice-captain: Calvert-Lewin
Bench (in order): Verbruggen, Slater, Mitchell, Calafiori — Calafiori is flagged (hip, 75% chance of playing), which helps explain his bench placing.
Starting-XI expected points for GW9: 48.63 (an estimate, not a guarantee).
Chip decision
Action: save — no valued chip is recommended now; the schedule looks better later. Wildcard is unassessed in this valuation. Free Hit would change and restore the squad, so it needs transfer-plan review before consideration.
Provisional later-GW moves (not actions for now)
- GW10: buy Gabriel, sell Calafiori; captain Gabriel
- GW11: buy Vuskovic, sell van Ewijk
- GW12: buy Khalaili, sell Gvardiol; captain Calvert-Lewin
These are plans from the frozen snapshot dated 28 October 2026, target GW9, and assume your current squad, prices and availability. Nothing has been executed — rerun after any transfers or team news.
Run
- Status
- completed
- Target gameweek
- GW9
- Model
- deepseek-v4.1-flash:cloud
- Temperature
- 0
- Model calls
- 2 of 4
- Tool calls
- 1
- Latency
- 8.5 s
- Tokens
- 5,566 in · 1,325 out
- Snapshot ID
- 20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty
Checks
-
Tool selectionpass
-
Argumentspass
-
Numberspass
-
Teamspass
-
Safetyn/a
Tool calls
1 get_recommendationcompleted
{
"horizon": 4,
"model": "full",
"threshold": 2,
"max_hits": 0
}
Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, actual_gws, threshold, allowed_hits, plan_objective, hold_objective, gain, make_transfers, players, selected_gw_plans, chip_decision, assumptions. Show full result
{
"snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
"as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
"season": "2026-27",
"target_gw": 9,
"model": "full",
"actual_gws": [
9,
10,
11,
12
],
"threshold": 2.0,
"allowed_hits": 0,
"plan_objective": 183.5197415136506,
"hold_objective": 179.73781057376831,
"gain": 3.7819309398822725,
"make_transfers": true,
"players": [
{
"element_id": 1,
"player_name": "Raya",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 62,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 4,
"player_name": "Gabriel",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 79,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 8,
"player_name": "Calafiori",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 60,
"status": "d",
"news": "Hip injury - 75% chance of playing"
},
{
"element_id": 15,
"player_name": "Ødegaard",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 67,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 40,
"player_name": "Rogers",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Chelsea",
"current_price": 80,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 109,
"player_name": "Verbruggen",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 46,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 124,
"player_name": "Groß",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 62,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 165,
"player_name": "João Pedro",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Chelsea",
"current_price": 78,
"status": "i",
"news": "Thigh injury - Unknown return date"
},
{
"element_id": 175,
"player_name": "van Ewijk",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Coventry City",
"current_price": 39,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 204,
"player_name": "Mitchell",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Crystal Palace",
"current_price": 45,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 249,
"player_name": "Barry",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Everton",
"current_price": 56,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 290,
"player_name": "Slater",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Hull City",
"current_price": 45,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 305,
"player_name": "Davis",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Ipswich Town",
"current_price": 40,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 346,
"player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Leeds",
"current_price": 61,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 391,
"player_name": "Gvardiol",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Man City",
"current_price": 57,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 411,
"player_name": "Haaland",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Man City",
"current_price": 158,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 426,
"player_name": "B.Fernandes",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Man Utd",
"current_price": 117,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 427,
"player_name": "Mbeumo",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Man Utd",
"current_price": 79,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 497,
"player_name": "Dubravka",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Spurs",
"current_price": 40,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 504,
"player_name": "Vuskovic",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 52,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 588,
"player_name": "Khalaili",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Crystal Palace",
"current_price": 50,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
}
],
"selected_gw_plans": [
{
"gw": 9,
"buys": [
1,
249,
427
],
"sells": [
165,
426,
497
],
"team_xi": [
1,
391,
305,
175,
427,
40,
15,
124,
411,
346,
249
],
"ordered_bench": [
109,
290,
204,
8
],
"captain": 411,
"vice_captain": 346,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 48.63147285717917
},
{
"gw": 10,
"buys": [
4
],
"sells": [
8
],
"team_xi": [
1,
4,
391,
305,
427,
15,
124,
40,
411,
249,
346
],
"ordered_bench": [
109,
204,
175,
290
],
"captain": 4,
"vice_captain": 411,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 54.33913067489811
},
{
"gw": 11,
"buys": [
504
],
"sells": [
175
],
"team_xi": [
109,
504,
4,
391,
427,
124,
15,
40,
411,
249,
346
],
"ordered_bench": [
1,
204,
305,
290
],
"captain": 411,
"vice_captain": 504,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 52.527488723258564
},
{
"gw": 12,
"buys": [
588
],
"sells": [
391
],
"team_xi": [
1,
588,
504,
4,
204,
427,
124,
15,
346,
249,
411
],
"ordered_bench": [
109,
305,
40,
290
],
"captain": 346,
"vice_captain": 588,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 51.41064998778977
}
],
"chip_decision": {
"action": "save",
"chip": null,
"reason": "Save the valued chips this GW; the projected schedule favours later opportunities. Wildcard remains unassessed.",
"evaluated_gws": [
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17,
18,
19
],
"options": [
{
"chip": "3xc",
"name": "Triple Captain",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 5.880235614972674,
"best_gw": 16,
"best_gain": 6.979466340507839,
"planned_gw": 16,
"planned_gain": 6.979466340507839,
"reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
},
{
"chip": "bboost",
"name": "Bench Boost",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 10.2891637800231,
"best_gw": 15,
"best_gain": 11.89126134533826,
"planned_gw": 15,
"planned_gain": 11.89126134533826,
"reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
},
{
"chip": "freehit",
"name": "Free Hit",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 4.876200619944754,
"best_gw": 14,
"best_gain": 7.693129700215991,
"planned_gw": 14,
"planned_gain": 7.693129700215991,
"reason": "Free Hit needs transfer-plan review."
},
{
"chip": "wildcard",
"name": "Wildcard",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": null,
"best_gw": null,
"best_gain": null,
"planned_gw": null,
"planned_gain": null,
"reason": "Manual review: Wildcard is not valued."
}
],
"assumptions": [
"Uses the selected first-GW squad unchanged in future GWs; rerun after transfers or team news.",
"Uses current availability and minutes estimates; future injury recovery is not forecast.",
"Schedules at most one valued chip per GW within its availability window.",
"Wildcard is not valued. Free Hit requires review because it changes and then restores the squad.",
"Starting-XI EP and the transfer objective exclude chip effects; gains are reported separately."
]
},
"assumptions": [
"Uses frozen prices, squad and projections; no transfer is executed.",
"The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only.",
"Objectives include GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties.",
"Later GW transfers are provisional plans, not actions to take now."
]
}