Answer

Question

For Arsenal, team ID 1, use only GW9. Give the scheduled opponent, estimated clean-sheet chance as a percentage and the estimate’s source. Is the clean sheet guaranteed?

completed trace 5d68edeb

Arsenal — GW9 only (snapshot as of 28 Oct 2026, 2026-27 season, target GW9)

Fixture	Opponent	Venue	Clean-sheet estimate	Source
Fixture 87	Liverpool	Away	28.4%	`ratings`

Is the clean sheet guaranteed? No. The 28.4% figure is a model probability from the ratings source, not a certainty. It implies roughly a 72% chance Arsenal concede at least one goal in this fixture. The model also projects 1.53 expected goals for and 1.26 against, so a Liverpool goal is a realistic outcome rather than a tail event.

Note the source is labelled ratings — this is a rating-derived estimate rather than a directly observed result, so treat it as indicative rather than definitive.

Run

Status: completed
Target gameweek: GW9
Model: minimax-m3.1-flash:cloud
Temperature: 0
Model calls: 2 of 4
Tool calls: 1
Latency: 4.1 s
Tokens: 4,152 in · 245 out
Snapshot ID: 20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty

Checks

Tool selectionpass
Argumentspass
Numbersfail

unsupported: 72
Teamsn/a
Safetyn/a

Tool calls

1 get_fixture_outlookcompleted

{
  "team_id": 1,
  "horizon": 1
}

Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, team_id, club, gws, fixtures. Show full result

{
  "snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
  "as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "target_gw": 9,
  "team_id": 1,
  "club": "Arsenal",
  "gws": [
    9
  ],
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "fixture_id": 87,
      "gw": 9,
      "opponent_id": 14,
      "opponent": "Liverpool",
      "home": false,
      "expected_goals_for": 1.5284674019540587,
      "expected_goals_against": 1.2600585245005635,
      "clean_sheet_probability": 0.2836374262753013,
      "source": "ratings"
    }
  ]
}