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Asked during eval run step19-minimax-m3-1-flash-cloud-t0-r1 · case recommendation-high-threshold-hold · snapshot GW9
Question
Using the full model over GW9 to GW12, set the transfer threshold to 1000 points and allow no hits. Should I transfer or hold for GW9? Give the gain, threshold and captain, and explain whether the hold option forbids transfers in every later GW.
Answer
completed trace 3c590778Answer: HOLD for GW9
Snapshot: 2026-10-28 (frozen), season 2026-27, target GW9. Model full, horizon 4 (GW9–GW12), threshold 1000, max hits 0.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Verdict | make_transfers: false → HOLD |
| Gain (plan − hold) | 3.78 points |
| Threshold | 1000.0 points |
| Plan objective | 183.52 |
| Hold objective | 179.74 |
| Captain (GW9) | Haaland (411) — vice-captain Calvert-Lewin (346) |
The modelled gain of 3.78 points sits far below the 1000-point threshold, so the recommended action for GW9 is to make no transfers — the selected transfer action is HOLD.
GW9 lineup (no changes)
XI: Dubravka? No — Verbruggen, Gvardiol, Davis, van Ewijk, Rogers, Ødegaard, B.Fernandes, Groß, Slater, Haaland, Calvert-Lewin Ordered bench: Dubravka, Mitchell, Calafiori, João Pedro
Does HOLD forbid transfers in every later GW?
No. The returned assumption is explicit: "The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only." Later GWs carry their own provisional plans, which include actual buys and sells:
- GW10 — buys Raya (1), Gabriel (4), Barry (249), Mbeumo (427); sells Calafiori (8), João Pedro (165), B.Fernandes (426), Dubravka (497). Captain: Gabriel, vice Haaland.
- GW11 — buys Vuskovic (504); sells van Ewijk (175). Captain: Haaland, vice Vuskovic.
- GW12 — buys Khalaili (588); sells Gvardiol (391). Captain: Calvert-Lewin, vice Khalaili.
These are provisional plans, not actions to take now, and they assume the squad and availability stay as frozen. Rerun after any transfer or team news — notably Calafiori (hip, 75% chance of playing) and João Pedro (thigh, unknown return).
Chip decision: save
No valued chip is recommended for GW9 — the projected schedule favours later opportunities, and Wildcard remains unassessed (not valued). Provisional chip windows: Free Hit GW14 (needs transfer-plan review, as it changes then restores the squad), Bench Boost GW15, Triple Captain GW16; all expire GW19. Chip gains are separate from the starting-XI expectation and transfer objective, and only one chip per GW can be scheduled.
No transfers have been executed and no chip has been activated.
Run
- Status
- completed
- Target gameweek
- GW9
- Model
- minimax-m3.1-flash:cloud
- Temperature
- 0
- Model calls
- 2 of 4
- Tool calls
- 2
- Latency
- 10.8 s
- Tokens
- 6,201 in · 1,196 out
- Snapshot ID
- 20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty
Checks
-
Tool selectionpass
-
Argumentspass
-
Numberspass
-
Teamsn/a
-
Safetyn/a
Tool calls
1 get_recommendationcompleted
{
"horizon": 4,
"model": "full",
"threshold": 1000,
"max_hits": 0
}
Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, actual_gws, threshold, allowed_hits, plan_objective, hold_objective, gain, make_transfers, players, selected_gw_plans, chip_decision, assumptions. Show full result
{
"snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
"as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
"season": "2026-27",
"target_gw": 9,
"model": "full",
"actual_gws": [
9,
10,
11,
12
],
"threshold": 1000.0,
"allowed_hits": 0,
"plan_objective": 183.5197415136506,
"hold_objective": 179.73781057376831,
"gain": 3.7819309398822725,
"make_transfers": false,
"players": [
{
"element_id": 1,
"player_name": "Raya",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 62,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 4,
"player_name": "Gabriel",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 79,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 8,
"player_name": "Calafiori",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 60,
"status": "d",
"news": "Hip injury - 75% chance of playing"
},
{
"element_id": 15,
"player_name": "Ødegaard",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 67,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 40,
"player_name": "Rogers",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Chelsea",
"current_price": 80,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 109,
"player_name": "Verbruggen",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 46,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 124,
"player_name": "Groß",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 62,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 165,
"player_name": "João Pedro",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Chelsea",
"current_price": 78,
"status": "i",
"news": "Thigh injury - Unknown return date"
},
{
"element_id": 175,
"player_name": "van Ewijk",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Coventry City",
"current_price": 39,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 204,
"player_name": "Mitchell",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Crystal Palace",
"current_price": 45,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 249,
"player_name": "Barry",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Everton",
"current_price": 56,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 290,
"player_name": "Slater",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Hull City",
"current_price": 45,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 305,
"player_name": "Davis",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Ipswich Town",
"current_price": 40,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 346,
"player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Leeds",
"current_price": 61,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 391,
"player_name": "Gvardiol",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Man City",
"current_price": 57,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 411,
"player_name": "Haaland",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Man City",
"current_price": 158,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 426,
"player_name": "B.Fernandes",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Man Utd",
"current_price": 117,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 427,
"player_name": "Mbeumo",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Man Utd",
"current_price": 79,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 497,
"player_name": "Dubravka",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Spurs",
"current_price": 40,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 504,
"player_name": "Vuskovic",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 52,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 588,
"player_name": "Khalaili",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Crystal Palace",
"current_price": 50,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
}
],
"selected_gw_plans": [
{
"gw": 9,
"buys": [],
"sells": [],
"team_xi": [
109,
391,
305,
175,
40,
15,
426,
124,
290,
411,
346
],
"ordered_bench": [
497,
204,
8,
165
],
"captain": 411,
"vice_captain": 346,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 45.60745605684265
},
{
"gw": 10,
"buys": [
1,
4,
249,
427
],
"sells": [
8,
165,
426,
497
],
"team_xi": [
1,
4,
391,
305,
427,
15,
124,
40,
411,
249,
346
],
"ordered_bench": [
109,
204,
175,
290
],
"captain": 4,
"vice_captain": 411,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 54.33913067489811
},
{
"gw": 11,
"buys": [
504
],
"sells": [
175
],
"team_xi": [
109,
504,
4,
391,
427,
124,
15,
40,
411,
249,
346
],
"ordered_bench": [
1,
204,
305,
290
],
"captain": 411,
"vice_captain": 504,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 52.527488723258564
},
{
"gw": 12,
"buys": [
588
],
"sells": [
391
],
"team_xi": [
1,
588,
504,
4,
204,
427,
124,
15,
346,
249,
411
],
"ordered_bench": [
109,
305,
40,
290
],
"captain": 346,
"vice_captain": 588,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 51.41064998778977
}
],
"chip_decision": {
"action": "save",
"chip": null,
"reason": "Save the valued chips this GW; the projected schedule favours later opportunities. Wildcard remains unassessed.",
"evaluated_gws": [
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17,
18,
19
],
"options": [
{
"chip": "3xc",
"name": "Triple Captain",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 5.880235614972674,
"best_gw": 16,
"best_gain": 6.979466340507839,
"planned_gw": 16,
"planned_gain": 6.979466340507839,
"reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
},
{
"chip": "bboost",
"name": "Bench Boost",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 5.236402849718311,
"best_gw": 15,
"best_gain": 5.736108213500684,
"planned_gw": 15,
"planned_gain": 5.736108213500684,
"reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
},
{
"chip": "freehit",
"name": "Free Hit",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 7.9002174202812725,
"best_gw": 14,
"best_gain": 12.06006180014083,
"planned_gw": 14,
"planned_gain": 12.06006180014083,
"reason": "Free Hit needs transfer-plan review."
},
{
"chip": "wildcard",
"name": "Wildcard",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": null,
"best_gw": null,
"best_gain": null,
"planned_gw": null,
"planned_gain": null,
"reason": "Manual review: Wildcard is not valued."
}
],
"assumptions": [
"Uses the selected first-GW squad unchanged in future GWs; rerun after transfers or team news.",
"Uses current availability and minutes estimates; future injury recovery is not forecast.",
"Schedules at most one valued chip per GW within its availability window.",
"Wildcard is not valued. Free Hit requires review because it changes and then restores the squad.",
"Starting-XI EP and the transfer objective exclude chip effects; gains are reported separately."
]
},
"assumptions": [
"Uses frozen prices, squad and projections; no transfer is executed.",
"The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only.",
"Objectives include GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties.",
"Later GW transfers are provisional plans, not actions to take now."
]
}
2 get_chip_valuescompleted
{
"horizon": 4,
"model": "full"
}
Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, values, best_gws, available_chips, assumptions. Show full result
{
"snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
"as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
"season": "2026-27",
"target_gw": 9,
"model": "full",
"values": [
{
"gw": 9,
"your_xi": 45.60745605684265,
"triple_captain": 5.880235614972674,
"bench_boost": 5.236402849718311,
"free_hit": 7.9002174202812725
},
{
"gw": 10,
"your_xi": 46.833338512201586,
"triple_captain": 5.302102481341644,
"bench_boost": 5.234738284803396,
"free_hit": 10.075478644650985
},
{
"gw": 11,
"your_xi": 48.09422080251896,
"triple_captain": 6.2788086588838325,
"bench_boost": 5.426764431786942,
"free_hit": 7.70754067002887
},
{
"gw": 12,
"your_xi": 45.19519736905403,
"triple_captain": 5.121715315446396,
"bench_boost": 5.092015899963931,
"free_hit": 8.871263405405003
}
],
"best_gws": {
"triple_captain": 11,
"bench_boost": 11,
"free_hit": 10
},
"available_chips": [
"wildcard (until GW19)",
"freehit (until GW19)",
"bboost (until GW19)",
"3xc (until GW19)"
],
"assumptions": [
"Uses the current frozen squad in every GW; future transfers are not planned.",
"Values are hypothetical gains even for chips that are no longer available.",
"The existing optimiser includes its default bench weight in squad selection.",
"For equal chip values, best_gws selects the earliest GW."
]
}