Answer

Question

Using the full model for GW9 only, what gains does the chip-value tool estimate for Triple Captain, Bench Boost and Free Hit? Which has the largest estimate? Are these guaranteed extra points?

completed trace 8b3288cc

Chip-value estimates (full model, GW9 only, horizon = 1)

Snapshot: 2026-10-28, target GW9 (deadline 2026-10-31 11:00 UTC), season 2026-27, squad "[team name]" (based on GW8).

Chip	Estimated gain (GW9)
Triple Captain	5.88 points
Bench Boost	5.24 points
Free Hit	7.90 points

Largest estimate: Free Hit, at roughly 7.9 points — ahead of Triple Captain (~5.9) and Bench Boost (~5.2). The tool's best_gws also picks GW9 as the best gameweek for each of these three under a 1-GW horizon.

No — these are not guaranteed points. They are model-based hypothetical estimates of extra points over and above your current starting XI's projected output (the tool puts your XI at 45.6 expected points for GW9). Actual returns depend on real-world performance, minutes, injuries and fixture outcomes. The tool also notes values are hypothetical even for chips that may no longer be usable, and assumes the current frozen squad in every GW with no transfers planned.

A few caveats worth flagging:

These figures are the chip-value tool's standalone numbers. The recommendation tool's chip_decision returns different gain_now values for the same chips (3xc 5.88, bboost 11.18, freehit 3.84), because it evaluates over GW9–19 with the selected squad carried forward.
On that longer horizon the recommendation's action is save — no chip this GW. It plans Triple Captain for GW16 (~6.98), Bench Boost for GW11 (~12.33) and flags Free Hit for GW14 (~10.29) subject to transfer-plan review, since Free Hit changes and then restores the squad. Wildcard is unassessed (not valued).
Chip gains are separate from the starting-XI projection and from the transfer objective. The transfer plan for GW9 is separate again: buy Kelleher, Thiago and Van Hecke; sell Calafiori, João Pedro and Dubravka; captain Haaland — expected 49.7 points, a gain of 4.96 over holding.

Don't add the chip gains on top of each other or on top of the 49.7 — they are alternative scenarios for the same gameweek.

Run

Status: completed
Target gameweek: GW9
Model: minimax-m3.1-flash:cloud
Temperature: 0
Model calls: 3 of 4
Tool calls: 3
Latency: 10.3 s
Tokens: 9,656 in · 905 out
Snapshot ID: 20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty

Checks

Tool selectionpass
Argumentspass
Numberspass
Teamsn/a
Safetyn/a

Tool calls

1 get_chip_valuescompleted

{
  "horizon": 1,
  "model": "full"
}

Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, values, best_gws, available_chips, assumptions. Show full result

{
  "snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
  "as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "target_gw": 9,
  "model": "full",
  "values": [
    {
      "gw": 9,
      "your_xi": 45.60745605684265,
      "triple_captain": 5.880235614972674,
      "bench_boost": 5.236402849718311,
      "free_hit": 7.9002174202812725
    }
  ],
  "best_gws": {
    "triple_captain": 9,
    "bench_boost": 9,
    "free_hit": 9
  },
  "available_chips": [
    "wildcard (until GW19)",
    "freehit (until GW19)",
    "bboost (until GW19)",
    "3xc (until GW19)"
  ],
  "assumptions": [
    "Uses the current frozen squad in every GW; future transfers are not planned.",
    "Values are hypothetical gains even for chips that are no longer available.",
    "The existing optimiser includes its default bench weight in squad selection.",
    "For equal chip values, best_gws selects the earliest GW."
  ]
}

2 get_my_teamcompleted

{}

Result fields: snapshot_id, snapshot_created_at, season, target_gw, deadline, team_name, based_on_gw, bank_in_tenths, free_transfers, available_chips, used_chips, squad_players. Show full result

{
  "snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
  "snapshot_created_at": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "target_gw": 9,
  "deadline": "2026-10-31T11:00:00Z",
  "team_name": "[team name]",
  "based_on_gw": 8,
  "bank_in_tenths": 11,
  "free_transfers": 3,
  "available_chips": [
    "wildcard (until GW19)",
    "freehit (until GW19)",
    "bboost (until GW19)",
    "3xc (until GW19)"
  ],
  "used_chips": [],
  "squad_players": [
    {
      "element_id": 109,
      "player_name": "Verbruggen",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "purchase_price": 45,
      "current_price": 46,
      "selling_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 391,
      "player_name": "Gvardiol",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Man City",
      "purchase_price": 55,
      "current_price": 57,
      "selling_price": 56,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 8,
      "player_name": "Calafiori",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "purchase_price": 58,
      "current_price": 60,
      "selling_price": 59,
      "status": "d",
      "news": "Hip injury - 75% chance of playing"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 175,
      "player_name": "van Ewijk",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Coventry City",
      "purchase_price": 40,
      "current_price": 39,
      "selling_price": 39,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 204,
      "player_name": "Mitchell",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Crystal Palace",
      "purchase_price": 45,
      "current_price": 45,
      "selling_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 15,
      "player_name": "Ødegaard",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "purchase_price": 67,
      "current_price": 67,
      "selling_price": 67,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 40,
      "player_name": "Rogers",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "purchase_price": 77,
      "current_price": 80,
      "selling_price": 78,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 124,
      "player_name": "Groß",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "purchase_price": 61,
      "current_price": 62,
      "selling_price": 61,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 290,
      "player_name": "Slater",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Hull City",
      "purchase_price": 45,
      "current_price": 45,
      "selling_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 411,
      "player_name": "Haaland",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Man City",
      "purchase_price": 155,
      "current_price": 158,
      "selling_price": 156,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 346,
      "player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Leeds",
      "purchase_price": 60,
      "current_price": 61,
      "selling_price": 60,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 497,
      "player_name": "Dubravka",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Spurs",
      "purchase_price": 40,
      "current_price": 40,
      "selling_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 426,
      "player_name": "B.Fernandes",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Man Utd",
      "purchase_price": 120,
      "current_price": 117,
      "selling_price": 117,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 165,
      "player_name": "João Pedro",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "purchase_price": 75,
      "current_price": 78,
      "selling_price": 76,
      "status": "i",
      "news": "Thigh injury - Unknown return date"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 305,
      "player_name": "Davis",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Ipswich Town",
      "purchase_price": 40,
      "current_price": 40,
      "selling_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    }
  ]
}

3 get_recommendationcompleted

{
  "horizon": 1,
  "model": "full"
}

Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, actual_gws, threshold, allowed_hits, plan_objective, hold_objective, gain, make_transfers, players, selected_gw_plans, chip_decision, assumptions. Show full result

{
  "snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
  "as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "target_gw": 9,
  "model": "full",
  "actual_gws": [
    9
  ],
  "threshold": 2.0,
  "allowed_hits": 0,
  "plan_objective": 51.348163234287625,
  "hold_objective": 46.3929164843004,
  "gain": 4.955246749987225,
  "make_transfers": true,
  "players": [
    {
      "element_id": 8,
      "player_name": "Calafiori",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 60,
      "status": "d",
      "news": "Hip injury - 75% chance of playing"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 15,
      "player_name": "Ødegaard",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 67,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 40,
      "player_name": "Rogers",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 80,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 82,
      "player_name": "Kelleher",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Brentford",
      "current_price": 50,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 106,
      "player_name": "Thiago",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Brentford",
      "current_price": 78,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 109,
      "player_name": "Verbruggen",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 46,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 112,
      "player_name": "Van Hecke",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Spurs",
      "current_price": 49,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 124,
      "player_name": "Groß",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 62,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 165,
      "player_name": "João Pedro",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 78,
      "status": "i",
      "news": "Thigh injury - Unknown return date"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 175,
      "player_name": "van Ewijk",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Coventry City",
      "current_price": 39,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 204,
      "player_name": "Mitchell",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Crystal Palace",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 290,
      "player_name": "Slater",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Hull City",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 305,
      "player_name": "Davis",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Ipswich Town",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 346,
      "player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Leeds",
      "current_price": 61,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 391,
      "player_name": "Gvardiol",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 57,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 411,
      "player_name": "Haaland",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 158,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 426,
      "player_name": "B.Fernandes",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Man Utd",
      "current_price": 117,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 497,
      "player_name": "Dubravka",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Spurs",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    }
  ],
  "selected_gw_plans": [
    {
      "gw": 9,
      "buys": [
        82,
        106,
        112
      ],
      "sells": [
        8,
        165,
        497
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        82,
        112,
        391,
        305,
        175,
        40,
        15,
        426,
        411,
        106,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        124,
        290,
        204
      ],
      "captain": 411,
      "vice_captain": 106,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 49.67157941266016
    }
  ],
  "chip_decision": {
    "action": "save",
    "chip": null,
    "reason": "Save the valued chips this GW; the projected schedule favours later opportunities. Wildcard remains unassessed.",
    "evaluated_gws": [
      9,
      10,
      11,
      12,
      13,
      14,
      15,
      16,
      17,
      18,
      19
    ],
    "options": [
      {
        "chip": "3xc",
        "name": "Triple Captain",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 5.880235614972674,
        "best_gw": 16,
        "best_gain": 6.979466340507839,
        "planned_gw": 16,
        "planned_gain": 6.979466340507839,
        "reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
      },
      {
        "chip": "bboost",
        "name": "Bench Boost",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 11.1772254775165,
        "best_gw": 11,
        "best_gain": 12.325201367714353,
        "planned_gw": 11,
        "planned_gain": 12.325201367714353,
        "reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
      },
      {
        "chip": "freehit",
        "name": "Free Hit",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 3.836094064463765,
        "best_gw": 14,
        "best_gain": 10.285504231578045,
        "planned_gw": 14,
        "planned_gain": 10.285504231578045,
        "reason": "Free Hit needs transfer-plan review."
      },
      {
        "chip": "wildcard",
        "name": "Wildcard",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": null,
        "best_gw": null,
        "best_gain": null,
        "planned_gw": null,
        "planned_gain": null,
        "reason": "Manual review: Wildcard is not valued."
      }
    ],
    "assumptions": [
      "Uses the selected first-GW squad unchanged in future GWs; rerun after transfers or team news.",
      "Uses current availability and minutes estimates; future injury recovery is not forecast.",
      "Schedules at most one valued chip per GW within its availability window.",
      "Wildcard is not valued. Free Hit requires review because it changes and then restores the squad.",
      "Starting-XI EP and the transfer objective exclude chip effects; gains are reported separately."
    ]
  },
  "assumptions": [
    "Uses frozen prices, squad and projections; no transfer is executed.",
    "The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only.",
    "Objectives include GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties.",
    "Later GW transfers are provisional plans, not actions to take now."
  ]
}