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Answer
Asked during eval run step19c-glm-5-3-cloud-t0-r1 · case recommendation-high-threshold-hold · snapshot GW9
Question
Using the full model over GW9 to GW12, set the transfer threshold to 1000 points and allow no hits. Should I transfer or hold for GW9? Give the gain, threshold and captain, and explain whether the hold option forbids transfers in every later GW.
Answer
completed trace 9bfdef0fHold for GW9 — the recommendation is not to make transfers this gameweek.
- Gain: 3.78 points (the best transfer plan over GW9–12 scores 183.52 vs 179.74 for holding)
- Threshold: 1,000 points
- Captain: Haaland (vice: Calvert-Lewin)
The gain of 3.78 points falls far short of the 1,000-point threshold, so the selected action is HOLD with no hits taken.
Does holding forbid transfers in every later GW? No. The hold plan forbids transfers in the first gameweek (GW9) only. The plans for GW10–12 (e.g. selling João Pedro and Calafiori in GW10, buying Vuskovic in GW11, buying Khalaili in GW12) are provisional plans for later GWs, not actions to take now — they would be re-assessed as team news and prices change.
Chip decision: Save — no valued chip is recommended this GW, as the projected schedule favours later opportunities (Triple Captain GW16, Bench Boost GW15, Free Hit GW14, all provisional). Wildcard remains unassessed.
This is based on the frozen snapshot dated 28 October 2026, targeting GW9 of the 2026-27 season, using the full model. Expected points are estimates, not guarantees.
Run
- Status
- completed
- Target gameweek
- GW9
- Model
- glm-5.3:cloud
- Temperature
- 0
- Model calls
- 2 of 4
- Tool calls
- 1
- Latency
- 8.6 s
- Tokens
- 5,203 in · 663 out
- Snapshot ID
- 20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty
Checks
-
Tool selectionpass
-
Argumentspass
-
Numberspass
-
Teamsn/a
-
Safetyn/a
Tool calls
1 get_recommendationcompleted
{
"horizon": 4,
"max_hits": 0,
"model": "full",
"threshold": 1000
}
Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, actual_gws, threshold, allowed_hits, plan_objective, hold_objective, gain, make_transfers, players, selected_gw_plans, chip_decision, assumptions. Show full result
{
"snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
"as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
"season": "2026-27",
"target_gw": 9,
"model": "full",
"actual_gws": [
9,
10,
11,
12
],
"threshold": 1000.0,
"allowed_hits": 0,
"plan_objective": 183.5197415136506,
"hold_objective": 179.73781057376831,
"gain": 3.7819309398822725,
"make_transfers": false,
"players": [
{
"element_id": 1,
"player_name": "Raya",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 62,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 4,
"player_name": "Gabriel",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 79,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 8,
"player_name": "Calafiori",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 60,
"status": "d",
"news": "Hip injury - 75% chance of playing"
},
{
"element_id": 15,
"player_name": "Ødegaard",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 67,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 40,
"player_name": "Rogers",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Chelsea",
"current_price": 80,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 109,
"player_name": "Verbruggen",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 46,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 124,
"player_name": "Groß",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 62,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 165,
"player_name": "João Pedro",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Chelsea",
"current_price": 78,
"status": "i",
"news": "Thigh injury - Unknown return date"
},
{
"element_id": 175,
"player_name": "van Ewijk",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Coventry City",
"current_price": 39,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 204,
"player_name": "Mitchell",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Crystal Palace",
"current_price": 45,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 249,
"player_name": "Barry",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Everton",
"current_price": 56,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 290,
"player_name": "Slater",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Hull City",
"current_price": 45,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 305,
"player_name": "Davis",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Ipswich Town",
"current_price": 40,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 346,
"player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Leeds",
"current_price": 61,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 391,
"player_name": "Gvardiol",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Man City",
"current_price": 57,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 411,
"player_name": "Haaland",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Man City",
"current_price": 158,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 426,
"player_name": "B.Fernandes",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Man Utd",
"current_price": 117,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 427,
"player_name": "Mbeumo",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Man Utd",
"current_price": 79,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 497,
"player_name": "Dubravka",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Spurs",
"current_price": 40,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 504,
"player_name": "Vuskovic",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 52,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 588,
"player_name": "Khalaili",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Crystal Palace",
"current_price": 50,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
}
],
"selected_gw_plans": [
{
"gw": 9,
"buys": [],
"sells": [],
"team_xi": [
109,
391,
305,
175,
40,
15,
426,
124,
290,
411,
346
],
"ordered_bench": [
497,
204,
8,
165
],
"captain": 411,
"vice_captain": 346,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 45.60745605684265
},
{
"gw": 10,
"buys": [
1,
4,
249,
427
],
"sells": [
8,
165,
426,
497
],
"team_xi": [
1,
4,
391,
305,
427,
15,
124,
40,
411,
249,
346
],
"ordered_bench": [
109,
204,
175,
290
],
"captain": 4,
"vice_captain": 411,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 54.33913067489811
},
{
"gw": 11,
"buys": [
504
],
"sells": [
175
],
"team_xi": [
109,
504,
4,
391,
427,
124,
15,
40,
411,
249,
346
],
"ordered_bench": [
1,
204,
305,
290
],
"captain": 411,
"vice_captain": 504,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 52.527488723258564
},
{
"gw": 12,
"buys": [
588
],
"sells": [
391
],
"team_xi": [
1,
588,
504,
4,
204,
427,
124,
15,
346,
249,
411
],
"ordered_bench": [
109,
305,
40,
290
],
"captain": 346,
"vice_captain": 588,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 51.41064998778977
}
],
"chip_decision": {
"action": "save",
"chip": null,
"reason": "Save the valued chips this GW; the projected schedule favours later opportunities. Wildcard remains unassessed.",
"evaluated_gws": [
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17,
18,
19
],
"options": [
{
"chip": "3xc",
"name": "Triple Captain",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 5.880235614972674,
"best_gw": 16,
"best_gain": 6.979466340507839,
"planned_gw": 16,
"planned_gain": 6.979466340507839,
"reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
},
{
"chip": "bboost",
"name": "Bench Boost",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 5.236402849718311,
"best_gw": 15,
"best_gain": 5.736108213500684,
"planned_gw": 15,
"planned_gain": 5.736108213500684,
"reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
},
{
"chip": "freehit",
"name": "Free Hit",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 7.9002174202812725,
"best_gw": 14,
"best_gain": 12.06006180014083,
"planned_gw": 14,
"planned_gain": 12.06006180014083,
"reason": "Free Hit needs transfer-plan review."
},
{
"chip": "wildcard",
"name": "Wildcard",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": null,
"best_gw": null,
"best_gain": null,
"planned_gw": null,
"planned_gain": null,
"reason": "Manual review: Wildcard is not valued."
}
],
"assumptions": [
"Uses the selected first-GW squad unchanged in future GWs; rerun after transfers or team news.",
"Uses current availability and minutes estimates; future injury recovery is not forecast.",
"Schedules at most one valued chip per GW within its availability window.",
"Wildcard is not valued. Free Hit requires review because it changes and then restores the squad.",
"Starting-XI EP and the transfer objective exclude chip effects; gains are reported separately."
]
},
"assumptions": [
"Uses frozen prices, squad and projections; no transfer is executed.",
"The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only.",
"Objectives include GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties.",
"Later GW transfers are provisional plans, not actions to take now."
]
}