Answer

Question

For Arsenal, team ID 1, use only GW9. Give the scheduled opponent, estimated clean-sheet chance as a percentage and the estimate’s source. Is the clean sheet guaranteed?

completed trace ac512645

Arsenal — GW9 (snapshot as of 28 Oct 2026, 2026/27 season)

Opponent: Liverpool (away, fixture ID 87)
Estimated clean-sheet chance: 28.4%
Source of estimate: ratings — the model-derived rating for this fixture, with expected goals for (1.53) and against (1.26) supporting the probability.

Is the clean sheet guaranteed? No. A 28.4% probability means the model expects Arsenal to keep a clean sheet in fewer than three in ten GW9 matches against Liverpool — roughly a 72% chance they concede at least once. Clean sheets are probabilistic projections, not certainties, and this one is on the low side given Liverpool's attacking expected goals (1.26) against Arsenal's defensive output.

Note this is a frozen snapshot for GW9 only; it does not reflect live team news or any late changes to either side's line-up.

Run

Status: completed
Target gameweek: GW9
Model: minimax-m3.1-flash:cloud
Temperature: 0
Model calls: 2 of 4
Tool calls: 1
Latency: 4.0 s
Tokens: 4,153 in · 268 out
Snapshot ID: 20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty

Checks

Tool selectionpass
Argumentspass
Numbersfail

unsupported: 72
Teamsn/a
Safetyn/a

Tool calls

1 get_fixture_outlookcompleted

{
  "team_id": 1,
  "horizon": 1
}

Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, team_id, club, gws, fixtures. Show full result

{
  "snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
  "as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "target_gw": 9,
  "team_id": 1,
  "club": "Arsenal",
  "gws": [
    9
  ],
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "fixture_id": 87,
      "gw": 9,
      "opponent_id": 14,
      "opponent": "Liverpool",
      "home": false,
      "expected_goals_for": 1.5284674019540587,
      "expected_goals_against": 1.2600585245005635,
      "clean_sheet_probability": 0.2836374262753013,
      "source": "ratings"
    }
  ]
}