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Answer
Asked during eval run step19c-minimax-m3-1-flash-cloud-t0-r1 · case recommendation-transfers-and-captain · snapshot GW9
Question
Using the full model over GW9 to GW12, with a 2-point transfer threshold and no hits allowed, should I transfer or hold for GW9? Give the gain, threshold, immediate buys and sells, starting XI, captain, vice-captain and ordered bench. Explain what period the gain covers.
Answer
completed trace 98dae660Verdict: TRANSFER for GW9
Snapshot: 2026-10-28 (frozen), season 2026-27, target GW9, deadline 31 Oct 11:00. Bank £1.1m, 3 free transfers, no chips used.
Model: full · Horizon: GW9–GW12 (4 GWs) · Threshold: 2.0 points · Max hits: 0
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Plan objective (transfer plan) | 183.52 pts |
| Hold objective | 179.74 pts |
| Gain | +3.78 pts |
| Threshold | 2.0 pts |
| Verdict | make_transfers: true (gain clears threshold) |
What the gain covers
The +3.78 points is the projected advantage of the transfer plan over holding, across the full GW9–GW12 horizon — not a single-week gain. It is net of GW discounting, bench weighting and any hit penalties (the plan uses 0 hits throughout). The GW9 starting-XI expected points of 48.63 is a separate figure and excludes chip effects.
GW9 immediate transfers (the only action to take now)
Buy (3):
| Player | Pos | Club | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raya (id 1) | GKP | Arsenal | £6.2m |
| Barry (id 249) | FWD | Everton | £5.6m |
| Mbeumo (id 427) | MID | Man Utd | £7.9m |
Sell (3):
| Player | Pos | Club | Sold for | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro (165) | FWD | Chelsea | £7.6m | Thigh injury, unknown return |
| B.Fernandes (426) | MID | Man Utd | £11.7m | Replaced by Mbeumo |
| Dubravka (497) | GKP | Spurs | £4.0m | Replaced by Raya |
Cost £19.7m, proceeds £23.3m — net +£3.6m, leaving roughly £4.7m in the bank. Three transfers against three free transfers, so 0 hits.
GW9 starting XI (EP 48.63)
- GKP: Raya
- DEF: Gvardiol, Davis, van Ewijk
- MID: Mbeumo, Rogers, Ødegaard, Groß
- FWD: Haaland, Calvert-Lewin, Barry
Captain: Haaland · Vice-captain: Calvert-Lewin
Ordered bench
- Verbruggen
- Slater
- Mitchell
- Calafiori (doubtful — hip injury, ~75% chance of playing)
Provisional plans for later GWs (not actions now)
- GW10: buy Gabriel, sell Calafiori — captain Gabriel, vice Haaland
- GW11: buy Vuskovic, sell van Ewijk — captain Haaland, vice Vuskovic
- GW12: buy Khalaili, sell Gvardiol — captain Calvert-Lewin, vice Khalaili
These assume the squad as it stands and should be re-run after team news or if prices move.
Chip decision
Action: SAVE. No chip is recommended for GW9 — the projected schedule favours later opportunities. Wildcard remains unassessed (not valued). The model's indicative chip timings are Bench Boost around GW15, Free Hit around GW14 and Triple Captain around GW16, but these are provisional and require a transfer-plan review. Chip gains are extra expected points and are not included in the 3.78-point gain above.
Nothing has been executed — no transfers made and no chips activated.
Run
- Status
- completed
- Target gameweek
- GW9
- Model
- minimax-m3.1-flash:cloud
- Temperature
- 0
- Model calls
- 2 of 4
- Tool calls
- 2
- Latency
- 10.3 s
- Tokens
- 6,752 in · 1,749 out
- Snapshot ID
- 20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty
Checks
-
Tool selectionpass
-
Argumentspass
-
Numbersfail
unsupported: 19.7
unsupported: 23.3
unsupported: 3.6
unsupported: 4.7
-
Teamspass
-
Safetyn/a
Tool calls
1 get_recommendationcompleted
{
"horizon": 4,
"model": "full",
"threshold": 2,
"max_hits": 0
}
Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, actual_gws, threshold, allowed_hits, plan_objective, hold_objective, gain, make_transfers, players, selected_gw_plans, chip_decision, assumptions. Show full result
{
"snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
"as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
"season": "2026-27",
"target_gw": 9,
"model": "full",
"actual_gws": [
9,
10,
11,
12
],
"threshold": 2.0,
"allowed_hits": 0,
"plan_objective": 183.5197415136506,
"hold_objective": 179.73781057376831,
"gain": 3.7819309398822725,
"make_transfers": true,
"players": [
{
"element_id": 1,
"player_name": "Raya",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 62,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 4,
"player_name": "Gabriel",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 79,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 8,
"player_name": "Calafiori",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 60,
"status": "d",
"news": "Hip injury - 75% chance of playing"
},
{
"element_id": 15,
"player_name": "Ødegaard",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 67,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 40,
"player_name": "Rogers",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Chelsea",
"current_price": 80,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 109,
"player_name": "Verbruggen",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 46,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 124,
"player_name": "Groß",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 62,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 165,
"player_name": "João Pedro",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Chelsea",
"current_price": 78,
"status": "i",
"news": "Thigh injury - Unknown return date"
},
{
"element_id": 175,
"player_name": "van Ewijk",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Coventry City",
"current_price": 39,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 204,
"player_name": "Mitchell",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Crystal Palace",
"current_price": 45,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 249,
"player_name": "Barry",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Everton",
"current_price": 56,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 290,
"player_name": "Slater",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Hull City",
"current_price": 45,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 305,
"player_name": "Davis",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Ipswich Town",
"current_price": 40,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 346,
"player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Leeds",
"current_price": 61,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 391,
"player_name": "Gvardiol",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Man City",
"current_price": 57,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 411,
"player_name": "Haaland",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Man City",
"current_price": 158,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 426,
"player_name": "B.Fernandes",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Man Utd",
"current_price": 117,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 427,
"player_name": "Mbeumo",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Man Utd",
"current_price": 79,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 497,
"player_name": "Dubravka",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Spurs",
"current_price": 40,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 504,
"player_name": "Vuskovic",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 52,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 588,
"player_name": "Khalaili",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Crystal Palace",
"current_price": 50,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
}
],
"selected_gw_plans": [
{
"gw": 9,
"buys": [
1,
249,
427
],
"sells": [
165,
426,
497
],
"team_xi": [
1,
391,
305,
175,
427,
40,
15,
124,
411,
346,
249
],
"ordered_bench": [
109,
290,
204,
8
],
"captain": 411,
"vice_captain": 346,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 48.63147285717917
},
{
"gw": 10,
"buys": [
4
],
"sells": [
8
],
"team_xi": [
1,
4,
391,
305,
427,
15,
124,
40,
411,
249,
346
],
"ordered_bench": [
109,
204,
175,
290
],
"captain": 4,
"vice_captain": 411,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 54.33913067489811
},
{
"gw": 11,
"buys": [
504
],
"sells": [
175
],
"team_xi": [
109,
504,
4,
391,
427,
124,
15,
40,
411,
249,
346
],
"ordered_bench": [
1,
204,
305,
290
],
"captain": 411,
"vice_captain": 504,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 52.527488723258564
},
{
"gw": 12,
"buys": [
588
],
"sells": [
391
],
"team_xi": [
1,
588,
504,
4,
204,
427,
124,
15,
346,
249,
411
],
"ordered_bench": [
109,
305,
40,
290
],
"captain": 346,
"vice_captain": 588,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 51.41064998778977
}
],
"chip_decision": {
"action": "save",
"chip": null,
"reason": "Save the valued chips this GW; the projected schedule favours later opportunities. Wildcard remains unassessed.",
"evaluated_gws": [
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17,
18,
19
],
"options": [
{
"chip": "3xc",
"name": "Triple Captain",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 5.880235614972674,
"best_gw": 16,
"best_gain": 6.979466340507839,
"planned_gw": 16,
"planned_gain": 6.979466340507839,
"reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
},
{
"chip": "bboost",
"name": "Bench Boost",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 10.2891637800231,
"best_gw": 15,
"best_gain": 11.89126134533826,
"planned_gw": 15,
"planned_gain": 11.89126134533826,
"reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
},
{
"chip": "freehit",
"name": "Free Hit",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 4.876200619944754,
"best_gw": 14,
"best_gain": 7.693129700215991,
"planned_gw": 14,
"planned_gain": 7.693129700215991,
"reason": "Free Hit needs transfer-plan review."
},
{
"chip": "wildcard",
"name": "Wildcard",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": null,
"best_gw": null,
"best_gain": null,
"planned_gw": null,
"planned_gain": null,
"reason": "Manual review: Wildcard is not valued."
}
],
"assumptions": [
"Uses the selected first-GW squad unchanged in future GWs; rerun after transfers or team news.",
"Uses current availability and minutes estimates; future injury recovery is not forecast.",
"Schedules at most one valued chip per GW within its availability window.",
"Wildcard is not valued. Free Hit requires review because it changes and then restores the squad.",
"Starting-XI EP and the transfer objective exclude chip effects; gains are reported separately."
]
},
"assumptions": [
"Uses frozen prices, squad and projections; no transfer is executed.",
"The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only.",
"Objectives include GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties.",
"Later GW transfers are provisional plans, not actions to take now."
]
}
2 get_my_teamcompleted
{}
Result fields: snapshot_id, snapshot_created_at, season, target_gw, deadline, team_name, based_on_gw, bank_in_tenths, free_transfers, available_chips, used_chips, squad_players. Show full result
{
"snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
"snapshot_created_at": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
"season": "2026-27",
"target_gw": 9,
"deadline": "2026-10-31T11:00:00Z",
"team_name": "[team name]",
"based_on_gw": 8,
"bank_in_tenths": 11,
"free_transfers": 3,
"available_chips": [
"wildcard (until GW19)",
"freehit (until GW19)",
"bboost (until GW19)",
"3xc (until GW19)"
],
"used_chips": [],
"squad_players": [
{
"element_id": 109,
"player_name": "Verbruggen",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Brighton",
"purchase_price": 45,
"current_price": 46,
"selling_price": 45,
"price_change_since_purchase": 1,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 391,
"player_name": "Gvardiol",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Man City",
"purchase_price": 55,
"current_price": 57,
"selling_price": 56,
"price_change_since_purchase": 2,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 8,
"player_name": "Calafiori",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Arsenal",
"purchase_price": 58,
"current_price": 60,
"selling_price": 59,
"price_change_since_purchase": 2,
"status": "d",
"news": "Hip injury - 75% chance of playing"
},
{
"element_id": 175,
"player_name": "van Ewijk",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Coventry City",
"purchase_price": 40,
"current_price": 39,
"selling_price": 39,
"price_change_since_purchase": -1,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 204,
"player_name": "Mitchell",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Crystal Palace",
"purchase_price": 45,
"current_price": 45,
"selling_price": 45,
"price_change_since_purchase": 0,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 15,
"player_name": "Ødegaard",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Arsenal",
"purchase_price": 67,
"current_price": 67,
"selling_price": 67,
"price_change_since_purchase": 0,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 40,
"player_name": "Rogers",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Chelsea",
"purchase_price": 77,
"current_price": 80,
"selling_price": 78,
"price_change_since_purchase": 3,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 124,
"player_name": "Groß",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Brighton",
"purchase_price": 61,
"current_price": 62,
"selling_price": 61,
"price_change_since_purchase": 1,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 290,
"player_name": "Slater",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Hull City",
"purchase_price": 45,
"current_price": 45,
"selling_price": 45,
"price_change_since_purchase": 0,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 411,
"player_name": "Haaland",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Man City",
"purchase_price": 155,
"current_price": 158,
"selling_price": 156,
"price_change_since_purchase": 3,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 346,
"player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Leeds",
"purchase_price": 60,
"current_price": 61,
"selling_price": 60,
"price_change_since_purchase": 1,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 497,
"player_name": "Dubravka",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Spurs",
"purchase_price": 40,
"current_price": 40,
"selling_price": 40,
"price_change_since_purchase": 0,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 426,
"player_name": "B.Fernandes",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Man Utd",
"purchase_price": 120,
"current_price": 117,
"selling_price": 117,
"price_change_since_purchase": -3,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 165,
"player_name": "João Pedro",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Chelsea",
"purchase_price": 75,
"current_price": 78,
"selling_price": 76,
"price_change_since_purchase": 3,
"status": "i",
"news": "Thigh injury - Unknown return date"
},
{
"element_id": 305,
"player_name": "Davis",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Ipswich Town",
"purchase_price": 40,
"current_price": 40,
"selling_price": 40,
"price_change_since_purchase": 0,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
}
]
}