Answer

Question

For Arsenal, team ID 1, use only GW9. Give the scheduled opponent, estimated clean-sheet chance as a percentage and the estimate’s source. Is the clean sheet guaranteed?

completed trace f0f5ecda

Arsenal — GW9 (snapshot: 28 October 2026, target GW9)

Opponent: Liverpool (away)
Estimated clean-sheet chance: 28.4% (roughly 28%, about 1 in 4)
Estimate source: ratings (model ratings-based fixture projection)

No — a clean sheet is not guaranteed. This is a model estimate, not a certainty, and at under 30% it's well short of likely: Arsenal are projected to concede (expected goals against ≈ 1.26).

Run

Status: completed
Target gameweek: GW9
Model: deepseek-v4.1-flash:cloud
Temperature: 0
Model calls: 2 of 4
Tool calls: 1
Latency: 1.9 s
Tokens: 3,996 in · 234 out
Snapshot ID: 20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty

Checks

Tool selectionpass
Argumentspass
Numbersfail

unsupported: 4
unsupported: 30
Teamsn/a
Safetyn/a

Tool calls

1 get_fixture_outlookcompleted

{
  "team_id": 1,
  "horizon": 1
}

Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, team_id, club, gws, fixtures. Show full result

{
  "snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
  "as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "target_gw": 9,
  "team_id": 1,
  "club": "Arsenal",
  "gws": [
    9
  ],
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "fixture_id": 87,
      "gw": 9,
      "opponent_id": 14,
      "opponent": "Liverpool",
      "home": false,
      "expected_goals_for": 1.5284674019540587,
      "expected_goals_against": 1.2600585245005635,
      "clean_sheet_probability": 0.2836374262753013,
      "source": "ratings"
    }
  ]
}