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Answer
Asked during eval run step19d-glm-5-3-cloud-t0-r1 · case recommendation-high-threshold-hold · snapshot GW9
Question
Using the full model over GW9 to GW12, set the transfer threshold to 1000 points and allow no hits. Should I transfer or hold for GW9? Give the gain, threshold and captain, and explain whether the hold option forbids transfers in every later GW.
Answer
completed trace fc0817e4Hold for GW9 — the recommendation is not to make transfers this gameweek (snapshot of 28 October 2026, target GW9, full model, GW9–GW12, no hits allowed).
- Gain: 3.78 points (the best transfer plan beats the hold plan by 3.78 over the horizon)
- Threshold: 1,000 points — the gain falls far short, so the selected action is HOLD
- Captain: Haaland (vice-captain: Calvert-Lewin)
Does holding forbid transfers in later GWs? No. The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only (GW9). The later GWs in the plan are provisional, not actions to take now — the model still proposes transfers for GW10–12, such as buying Raya, Gabriel, Barry and Mbeumo in GW10, Vuskovic in GW11 and Khalaili in GW12, all with no hits.
Chip decision: Save — no valued chip is recommended now, as the projected schedule favours later opportunities (Triple Captain GW16, Bench Boost GW15, Free Hit GW14, all provisional). Wildcard remains unassessed.
These are model projections, not guarantees, and the later-GW plans assume the current squad and availability, so they should be reviewed after team news.
Run
- Status
- completed
- Target gameweek
- GW9
- Model
- glm-5.3:cloud
- Temperature
- 0
- Model calls
- 2 of 4
- Tool calls
- 1
- Latency
- 7.1 s
- Tokens
- 5,313 in · 657 out
- Snapshot ID
- 20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty
Checks
-
Tool selectionpass
-
Argumentspass
-
Numberspass
-
Teamsn/a
-
Safetyn/a
Hand review
- Task successpass
AI-assisted review.
Tool calls
1 get_recommendationcompleted
{
"horizon": 4,
"max_hits": 0,
"model": "full",
"threshold": 1000
}
Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, actual_gws, threshold, allowed_hits, plan_objective, hold_objective, gain, make_transfers, players, selected_gw_plans, chip_decision, assumptions. Show full result
{
"snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
"as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
"season": "2026-27",
"target_gw": 9,
"model": "full",
"actual_gws": [
9,
10,
11,
12
],
"threshold": 1000.0,
"allowed_hits": 0,
"plan_objective": 183.5197415136506,
"hold_objective": 179.73781057376831,
"gain": 3.7819309398822725,
"make_transfers": false,
"players": [
{
"element_id": 1,
"player_name": "Raya",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 62,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 4,
"player_name": "Gabriel",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 79,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 8,
"player_name": "Calafiori",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 60,
"status": "d",
"news": "Hip injury - 75% chance of playing"
},
{
"element_id": 15,
"player_name": "Ødegaard",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Arsenal",
"current_price": 67,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 40,
"player_name": "Rogers",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Chelsea",
"current_price": 80,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 109,
"player_name": "Verbruggen",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 46,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 124,
"player_name": "Groß",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 62,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 165,
"player_name": "João Pedro",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Chelsea",
"current_price": 78,
"status": "i",
"news": "Thigh injury - Unknown return date"
},
{
"element_id": 175,
"player_name": "van Ewijk",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Coventry City",
"current_price": 39,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 204,
"player_name": "Mitchell",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Crystal Palace",
"current_price": 45,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 249,
"player_name": "Barry",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Everton",
"current_price": 56,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 290,
"player_name": "Slater",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Hull City",
"current_price": 45,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 305,
"player_name": "Davis",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Ipswich Town",
"current_price": 40,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 346,
"player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Leeds",
"current_price": 61,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 391,
"player_name": "Gvardiol",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Man City",
"current_price": 57,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 411,
"player_name": "Haaland",
"position": "FWD",
"club": "Man City",
"current_price": 158,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 426,
"player_name": "B.Fernandes",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Man Utd",
"current_price": 117,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 427,
"player_name": "Mbeumo",
"position": "MID",
"club": "Man Utd",
"current_price": 79,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 497,
"player_name": "Dubravka",
"position": "GKP",
"club": "Spurs",
"current_price": 40,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 504,
"player_name": "Vuskovic",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Brighton",
"current_price": 52,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
},
{
"element_id": 588,
"player_name": "Khalaili",
"position": "DEF",
"club": "Crystal Palace",
"current_price": 50,
"status": "a",
"news": ""
}
],
"selected_gw_plans": [
{
"gw": 9,
"buys": [],
"sells": [],
"team_xi": [
109,
391,
305,
175,
40,
15,
426,
124,
290,
411,
346
],
"ordered_bench": [
497,
204,
8,
165
],
"captain": 411,
"vice_captain": 346,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 45.60745605684265
},
{
"gw": 10,
"buys": [
1,
4,
249,
427
],
"sells": [
8,
165,
426,
497
],
"team_xi": [
1,
4,
391,
305,
427,
15,
124,
40,
411,
249,
346
],
"ordered_bench": [
109,
204,
175,
290
],
"captain": 4,
"vice_captain": 411,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 54.33913067489811
},
{
"gw": 11,
"buys": [
504
],
"sells": [
175
],
"team_xi": [
109,
504,
4,
391,
427,
124,
15,
40,
411,
249,
346
],
"ordered_bench": [
1,
204,
305,
290
],
"captain": 411,
"vice_captain": 504,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 52.527488723258564
},
{
"gw": 12,
"buys": [
588
],
"sells": [
391
],
"team_xi": [
1,
588,
504,
4,
204,
427,
124,
15,
346,
249,
411
],
"ordered_bench": [
109,
305,
40,
290
],
"captain": 346,
"vice_captain": 588,
"hits": 0,
"expected_points": 51.41064998778977
}
],
"chip_decision": {
"action": "save",
"chip": null,
"reason": "Save the valued chips this GW; the projected schedule favours later opportunities. Wildcard remains unassessed.",
"evaluated_gws": [
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17,
18,
19
],
"options": [
{
"chip": "3xc",
"name": "Triple Captain",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 5.880235614972674,
"best_gw": 16,
"best_gain": 6.979466340507839,
"planned_gw": 16,
"planned_gain": 6.979466340507839,
"reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
},
{
"chip": "bboost",
"name": "Bench Boost",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 5.236402849718311,
"best_gw": 15,
"best_gain": 5.736108213500684,
"planned_gw": 15,
"planned_gain": 5.736108213500684,
"reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
},
{
"chip": "freehit",
"name": "Free Hit",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": 7.9002174202812725,
"best_gw": 14,
"best_gain": 12.06006180014083,
"planned_gw": 14,
"planned_gain": 12.06006180014083,
"reason": "Free Hit needs transfer-plan review."
},
{
"chip": "wildcard",
"name": "Wildcard",
"available": true,
"expires_gw": 19,
"gain_now": null,
"best_gw": null,
"best_gain": null,
"planned_gw": null,
"planned_gain": null,
"reason": "Manual review: Wildcard is not valued."
}
],
"assumptions": [
"Uses the selected first-GW squad unchanged in future GWs; rerun after transfers or team news.",
"Uses current availability and minutes estimates; future injury recovery is not forecast.",
"Schedules at most one valued chip per GW within its availability window.",
"Wildcard is not valued. Free Hit requires review because it changes and then restores the squad.",
"Starting-XI EP and the transfer objective exclude chip effects; gains are reported separately."
]
},
"assumptions": [
"Uses frozen prices, squad and projections; no transfer is executed.",
"The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only.",
"Objectives include GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties.",
"Later GW transfers are provisional plans, not actions to take now."
]
}