Answer

Question

Using the full model over GW9 to GW12, with a 2-point transfer threshold and no hits allowed, should I transfer or hold for GW9? Give the gain, threshold, immediate buys and sells, starting XI, captain, vice-captain and ordered bench. Explain what period the gain covers.

completed trace b24c9339

Verdict: TRANSFER for GW9 (snapshot of 28 Oct 2026, season 2026-27, target GW9).

Gain vs threshold

Projected gain: +3.78 pts
Threshold: 2.0 pts
The gain exceeds the threshold, so the model says transfer rather than hold.
Period covered: the gain is not a GW9-only figure. It compares the full transfer plan over the whole GW9–GW12 horizon (plan objective 183.52) against holding (hold objective 179.74), with no hits taken. It includes the provisional later-GW transfers, not just the immediate ones. The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only.

Immediate transfers for GW9 (all estimates, nothing is executed by this tool):

Out: João Pedro (Chelsea, FWD – thigh injury, no return date), B.Fernandes (Man Utd, MID), Dubravka (Spurs, GKP)
In: Raya (Arsenal, GKP), Barry (Everton, FWD), Mbeumo (Man Utd, MID)

GW9 starting XI (projected ~48.6 pts): Raya; Gvardiol, Davis, van Ewijk; Mbeumo, Rogers, Ødegaard, Groß; Haaland, Calvert-Lewin, Barry

Captain: Haaland
Vice-captain: Calvert-Lewin
Ordered bench: Verbruggen, Slater, Mitchell, Calafiori (Calafiori is flagged – hip injury, 75% chance of playing)

Chip decision: SAVE. No valued chip is recommended now – the projected schedule favours later opportunities (provisional timings: Free Hit GW14, Bench Boost GW15, Triple Captain GW16). Wildcard remains unassessed. These future chip dates assume the stated squad and availability, so treat them as provisional.

Note: the GW10–GW12 transfers (e.g. Gabriel for Calafiori in GW10) are provisional plans only, not actions to take now – rerun after team news.

Run

Status: completed
Target gameweek: GW9
Model: glm-5.3:cloud
Temperature: 1
Model calls: 2 of 4
Tool calls: 1
Latency: 18.3 s
Tokens: 5,325 in · 1,591 out
Snapshot ID: 20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty

Checks

Tool selectionpass
Argumentspass
Numberspass
Teamspass
Safetyn/a

Hand review

Task successpass

AI-assisted review.

Tool calls

1 get_recommendationcompleted

{
  "horizon": 4,
  "max_hits": 0,
  "model": "full",
  "threshold": 2
}

Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, actual_gws, threshold, allowed_hits, plan_objective, hold_objective, gain, make_transfers, players, selected_gw_plans, chip_decision, assumptions. Show full result

{
  "snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
  "as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "target_gw": 9,
  "model": "full",
  "actual_gws": [
    9,
    10,
    11,
    12
  ],
  "threshold": 2.0,
  "allowed_hits": 0,
  "plan_objective": 183.5197415136506,
  "hold_objective": 179.73781057376831,
  "gain": 3.7819309398822725,
  "make_transfers": true,
  "players": [
    {
      "element_id": 1,
      "player_name": "Raya",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 62,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 4,
      "player_name": "Gabriel",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 79,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 8,
      "player_name": "Calafiori",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 60,
      "status": "d",
      "news": "Hip injury - 75% chance of playing"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 15,
      "player_name": "Ødegaard",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 67,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 40,
      "player_name": "Rogers",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 80,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 109,
      "player_name": "Verbruggen",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 46,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 124,
      "player_name": "Groß",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 62,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 165,
      "player_name": "João Pedro",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 78,
      "status": "i",
      "news": "Thigh injury - Unknown return date"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 175,
      "player_name": "van Ewijk",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Coventry City",
      "current_price": 39,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 204,
      "player_name": "Mitchell",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Crystal Palace",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 249,
      "player_name": "Barry",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Everton",
      "current_price": 56,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 290,
      "player_name": "Slater",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Hull City",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 305,
      "player_name": "Davis",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Ipswich Town",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 346,
      "player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Leeds",
      "current_price": 61,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 391,
      "player_name": "Gvardiol",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 57,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 411,
      "player_name": "Haaland",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 158,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 426,
      "player_name": "B.Fernandes",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Man Utd",
      "current_price": 117,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 427,
      "player_name": "Mbeumo",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Man Utd",
      "current_price": 79,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 497,
      "player_name": "Dubravka",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Spurs",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 504,
      "player_name": "Vuskovic",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 52,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 588,
      "player_name": "Khalaili",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Crystal Palace",
      "current_price": 50,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    }
  ],
  "selected_gw_plans": [
    {
      "gw": 9,
      "buys": [
        1,
        249,
        427
      ],
      "sells": [
        165,
        426,
        497
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        1,
        391,
        305,
        175,
        427,
        40,
        15,
        124,
        411,
        346,
        249
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        290,
        204,
        8
      ],
      "captain": 411,
      "vice_captain": 346,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 48.63147285717917
    },
    {
      "gw": 10,
      "buys": [
        4
      ],
      "sells": [
        8
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        1,
        4,
        391,
        305,
        427,
        15,
        124,
        40,
        411,
        249,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        204,
        175,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 4,
      "vice_captain": 411,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 54.33913067489811
    },
    {
      "gw": 11,
      "buys": [
        504
      ],
      "sells": [
        175
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        109,
        504,
        4,
        391,
        427,
        124,
        15,
        40,
        411,
        249,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        1,
        204,
        305,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 411,
      "vice_captain": 504,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 52.527488723258564
    },
    {
      "gw": 12,
      "buys": [
        588
      ],
      "sells": [
        391
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        1,
        588,
        504,
        4,
        204,
        427,
        124,
        15,
        346,
        249,
        411
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        305,
        40,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 346,
      "vice_captain": 588,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 51.41064998778977
    }
  ],
  "chip_decision": {
    "action": "save",
    "chip": null,
    "reason": "Save the valued chips this GW; the projected schedule favours later opportunities. Wildcard remains unassessed.",
    "evaluated_gws": [
      9,
      10,
      11,
      12,
      13,
      14,
      15,
      16,
      17,
      18,
      19
    ],
    "options": [
      {
        "chip": "3xc",
        "name": "Triple Captain",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 5.880235614972674,
        "best_gw": 16,
        "best_gain": 6.979466340507839,
        "planned_gw": 16,
        "planned_gain": 6.979466340507839,
        "reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
      },
      {
        "chip": "bboost",
        "name": "Bench Boost",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 10.2891637800231,
        "best_gw": 15,
        "best_gain": 11.89126134533826,
        "planned_gw": 15,
        "planned_gain": 11.89126134533826,
        "reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
      },
      {
        "chip": "freehit",
        "name": "Free Hit",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 4.876200619944754,
        "best_gw": 14,
        "best_gain": 7.693129700215991,
        "planned_gw": 14,
        "planned_gain": 7.693129700215991,
        "reason": "Free Hit needs transfer-plan review."
      },
      {
        "chip": "wildcard",
        "name": "Wildcard",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": null,
        "best_gw": null,
        "best_gain": null,
        "planned_gw": null,
        "planned_gain": null,
        "reason": "Manual review: Wildcard is not valued."
      }
    ],
    "assumptions": [
      "Uses the selected first-GW squad unchanged in future GWs; rerun after transfers or team news.",
      "Uses current availability and minutes estimates; future injury recovery is not forecast.",
      "Schedules at most one valued chip per GW within its availability window.",
      "Wildcard is not valued. Free Hit requires review because it changes and then restores the squad.",
      "Starting-XI EP and the transfer objective exclude chip effects; gains are reported separately."
    ]
  },
  "assumptions": [
    "Uses frozen prices, squad and projections; no transfer is executed.",
    "The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only.",
    "Objectives include GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties.",
    "Later GW transfers are provisional plans, not actions to take now."
  ]
}