FPL agentSeason 2026-27
Pilot model
glm-5.3:cloud · temp 0
Snapshot
GW9 · 28 Oct, 21:26
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Answer

Asked during eval run step19d-kimi-k3-cloud-t0-r1 · case recommendation-high-threshold-hold · snapshot GW9

Question

Using the full model over GW9 to GW12, set the transfer threshold to 1000 points and allow no hits. Should I transfer or hold for GW9? Give the gain, threshold and captain, and explain whether the hold option forbids transfers in every later GW.

Answer

completed trace fc335fff

Hold for GW9. (Snapshot: 28 Oct 2026, target GW9, full model, GW9–GW12 horizon, no hits allowed.)

  • Decision: make_transfers is false, so the selected action is HOLD — no transfers in GW9.
  • Gain: 3.78 points (plan objective 183.52 vs hold objective 179.74).
  • Threshold: 1000.0. The gain is far below the threshold, so the model sees no case for transferring now.
  • Captain (GW9): Haaland (Man City), with Calvert-Lewin as vice-captain.
  • Chip decision: save — no valued chip is recommended this GW; the projected schedule favours later opportunities (Triple Captain GW16, Bench Boost GW15, Free Hit GW14, all provisional). Wildcard remains unassessed.

Does holding forbid transfers in later GWs? No. The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only. The later-GW transfers in the plan are provisional, not actions to take now:

  • GW10: buy Raya, Gabriel, Barry, Mbeumo; sell Calafiori, João Pedro, B.Fernandes, Dubravka (captain: Gabriel).
  • GW11: buy Vuskovic; sell van Ewijk (captain: Haaland).
  • GW12: buy Khalaili; sell Gvardiol (captain: Calvert-Lewin).

These are model projections from the frozen snapshot, not guarantees — rerun after any team news before acting on them.

Run

Status
completed
Target gameweek
GW9
Model
kimi-k3:cloud
Temperature
0
Model calls
2 of 4
Tool calls
1
Latency
9.7 s
Tokens
5,234 in · 770 out
Snapshot ID
20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty

Checks

  • Tool selectionpass
  • Argumentspass
  • Numberspass
  • Teamsn/a
  • Safetyn/a

Tool calls

1  get_recommendationcompleted
{
  "horizon": 4,
  "max_hits": 0,
  "model": "full",
  "threshold": 1000
}
Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, actual_gws, threshold, allowed_hits, plan_objective, hold_objective, gain, make_transfers, players, selected_gw_plans, chip_decision, assumptions. Show full result 
{
  "snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
  "as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "target_gw": 9,
  "model": "full",
  "actual_gws": [
    9,
    10,
    11,
    12
  ],
  "threshold": 1000.0,
  "allowed_hits": 0,
  "plan_objective": 183.5197415136506,
  "hold_objective": 179.73781057376831,
  "gain": 3.7819309398822725,
  "make_transfers": false,
  "players": [
    {
      "element_id": 1,
      "player_name": "Raya",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 62,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 4,
      "player_name": "Gabriel",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 79,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 8,
      "player_name": "Calafiori",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 60,
      "status": "d",
      "news": "Hip injury - 75% chance of playing"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 15,
      "player_name": "Ødegaard",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 67,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 40,
      "player_name": "Rogers",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 80,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 109,
      "player_name": "Verbruggen",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 46,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 124,
      "player_name": "Groß",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 62,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 165,
      "player_name": "João Pedro",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 78,
      "status": "i",
      "news": "Thigh injury - Unknown return date"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 175,
      "player_name": "van Ewijk",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Coventry City",
      "current_price": 39,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 204,
      "player_name": "Mitchell",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Crystal Palace",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 249,
      "player_name": "Barry",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Everton",
      "current_price": 56,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 290,
      "player_name": "Slater",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Hull City",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 305,
      "player_name": "Davis",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Ipswich Town",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 346,
      "player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Leeds",
      "current_price": 61,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 391,
      "player_name": "Gvardiol",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 57,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 411,
      "player_name": "Haaland",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 158,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 426,
      "player_name": "B.Fernandes",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Man Utd",
      "current_price": 117,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 427,
      "player_name": "Mbeumo",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Man Utd",
      "current_price": 79,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 497,
      "player_name": "Dubravka",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Spurs",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 504,
      "player_name": "Vuskovic",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 52,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 588,
      "player_name": "Khalaili",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Crystal Palace",
      "current_price": 50,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    }
  ],
  "selected_gw_plans": [
    {
      "gw": 9,
      "buys": [],
      "sells": [],
      "team_xi": [
        109,
        391,
        305,
        175,
        40,
        15,
        426,
        124,
        290,
        411,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        497,
        204,
        8,
        165
      ],
      "captain": 411,
      "vice_captain": 346,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 45.60745605684265
    },
    {
      "gw": 10,
      "buys": [
        1,
        4,
        249,
        427
      ],
      "sells": [
        8,
        165,
        426,
        497
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        1,
        4,
        391,
        305,
        427,
        15,
        124,
        40,
        411,
        249,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        204,
        175,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 4,
      "vice_captain": 411,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 54.33913067489811
    },
    {
      "gw": 11,
      "buys": [
        504
      ],
      "sells": [
        175
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        109,
        504,
        4,
        391,
        427,
        124,
        15,
        40,
        411,
        249,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        1,
        204,
        305,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 411,
      "vice_captain": 504,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 52.527488723258564
    },
    {
      "gw": 12,
      "buys": [
        588
      ],
      "sells": [
        391
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        1,
        588,
        504,
        4,
        204,
        427,
        124,
        15,
        346,
        249,
        411
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        305,
        40,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 346,
      "vice_captain": 588,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 51.41064998778977
    }
  ],
  "chip_decision": {
    "action": "save",
    "chip": null,
    "reason": "Save the valued chips this GW; the projected schedule favours later opportunities. Wildcard remains unassessed.",
    "evaluated_gws": [
      9,
      10,
      11,
      12,
      13,
      14,
      15,
      16,
      17,
      18,
      19
    ],
    "options": [
      {
        "chip": "3xc",
        "name": "Triple Captain",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 5.880235614972674,
        "best_gw": 16,
        "best_gain": 6.979466340507839,
        "planned_gw": 16,
        "planned_gain": 6.979466340507839,
        "reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
      },
      {
        "chip": "bboost",
        "name": "Bench Boost",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 5.236402849718311,
        "best_gw": 15,
        "best_gain": 5.736108213500684,
        "planned_gw": 15,
        "planned_gain": 5.736108213500684,
        "reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
      },
      {
        "chip": "freehit",
        "name": "Free Hit",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 7.9002174202812725,
        "best_gw": 14,
        "best_gain": 12.06006180014083,
        "planned_gw": 14,
        "planned_gain": 12.06006180014083,
        "reason": "Free Hit needs transfer-plan review."
      },
      {
        "chip": "wildcard",
        "name": "Wildcard",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": null,
        "best_gw": null,
        "best_gain": null,
        "planned_gw": null,
        "planned_gain": null,
        "reason": "Manual review: Wildcard is not valued."
      }
    ],
    "assumptions": [
      "Uses the selected first-GW squad unchanged in future GWs; rerun after transfers or team news.",
      "Uses current availability and minutes estimates; future injury recovery is not forecast.",
      "Schedules at most one valued chip per GW within its availability window.",
      "Wildcard is not valued. Free Hit requires review because it changes and then restores the squad.",
      "Starting-XI EP and the transfer objective exclude chip effects; gains are reported separately."
    ]
  },
  "assumptions": [
    "Uses frozen prices, squad and projections; no transfer is executed.",
    "The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only.",
    "Objectives include GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties.",
    "Later GW transfers are provisional plans, not actions to take now."
  ]
}