Answer

Question

Using the full model over GW9 to GW12, with a 2-point transfer threshold and no hits allowed, should I transfer or hold for GW9? Give the gain, threshold, immediate buys and sells, starting XI, captain, vice-captain and ordered bench. Explain what period the gain covers.

completed trace 3c7ba0ad

Verdict: TRANSFER for GW9 — the model recommends making the moves.

Snapshot: 28 October 2026 (frozen), target GW9, full model, horizon GW9–GW12, threshold 2.0, no hits allowed.

Gain vs threshold

Plan objective (GW9–GW12): 183.5 EP
Hold objective: 179.7 EP
Gain: +3.8 EP against the 2.0 threshold — the gain clears the bar, hence make_transfers: true.
The gain covers the entire four-GW window (GW9–GW12), not GW9 alone. The objectives include GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties; the hold plan forbids transfers in GW9 only.

Immediate GW9 moves (0 hits)

Buy: Raya (Arsenal, GKP, £6.2m), Barry (Everton, FWD, £5.6m), Mbeumo (Man Utd, MID, £7.9m)
Sell: João Pedro (Chelsea, FWD — thigh injury, unknown return), B.Fernandes (Man Utd, MID, £11.7m), Dubravka (Spurs, GKP, £4.0m)

GW9 starting XI (projected 48.6 EP)

Raya
Gvardiol, Davis, van Ewijk
Mbeumo, Rogers, Ødegaard, Groß
Haaland, Calvert-Lewin, Barry

Captain: Haaland — Vice-captain: Calvert-Lewin

Ordered bench: 1. Verbruggen (GKP) 2. Slater 3. Mitchell 4. Calafiori (hip injury, 75% chance of playing)

Chip decision: Save. No valued chip is recommended for GW9 — the projected schedule favours later opportunities (Bench Boost pencilled for GW15, Triple Captain GW16, Free Hit GW14, all provisional and needing review). Wildcard remains unassessed. These are estimates from the frozen squad and aren't activated by this recommendation.

Note: the tool also returned provisional transfer plans for GWs 10–12 (e.g. Gabriel in for Calafiori in GW10, Vuskovic for van Ewijk in GW11, Khalaili for Gvardiol in GW12). These are projections within the planning window, not actions to take now — only the GW9 moves are the immediate decision. No transfers are executed by this recommendation.

Run

Status: completed
Target gameweek: GW9
Model: kimi-k3:cloud
Temperature: 1
Model calls: 2 of 4
Tool calls: 1
Latency: 15.6 s
Tokens: 5,245 in · 1,293 out
Snapshot ID: 20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty

Checks

Tool selectionpass
Argumentspass
Numberspass
Teamspass
Safetyn/a

Tool calls

1 get_recommendationcompleted

{
  "horizon": 4,
  "max_hits": 0,
  "model": "full",
  "threshold": 2
}

Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, actual_gws, threshold, allowed_hits, plan_objective, hold_objective, gain, make_transfers, players, selected_gw_plans, chip_decision, assumptions. Show full result

{
  "snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
  "as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "target_gw": 9,
  "model": "full",
  "actual_gws": [
    9,
    10,
    11,
    12
  ],
  "threshold": 2.0,
  "allowed_hits": 0,
  "plan_objective": 183.5197415136506,
  "hold_objective": 179.73781057376831,
  "gain": 3.7819309398822725,
  "make_transfers": true,
  "players": [
    {
      "element_id": 1,
      "player_name": "Raya",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 62,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 4,
      "player_name": "Gabriel",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 79,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 8,
      "player_name": "Calafiori",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 60,
      "status": "d",
      "news": "Hip injury - 75% chance of playing"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 15,
      "player_name": "Ødegaard",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 67,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 40,
      "player_name": "Rogers",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 80,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 109,
      "player_name": "Verbruggen",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 46,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 124,
      "player_name": "Groß",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 62,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 165,
      "player_name": "João Pedro",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 78,
      "status": "i",
      "news": "Thigh injury - Unknown return date"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 175,
      "player_name": "van Ewijk",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Coventry City",
      "current_price": 39,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 204,
      "player_name": "Mitchell",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Crystal Palace",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 249,
      "player_name": "Barry",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Everton",
      "current_price": 56,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 290,
      "player_name": "Slater",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Hull City",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 305,
      "player_name": "Davis",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Ipswich Town",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 346,
      "player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Leeds",
      "current_price": 61,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 391,
      "player_name": "Gvardiol",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 57,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 411,
      "player_name": "Haaland",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 158,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 426,
      "player_name": "B.Fernandes",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Man Utd",
      "current_price": 117,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 427,
      "player_name": "Mbeumo",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Man Utd",
      "current_price": 79,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 497,
      "player_name": "Dubravka",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Spurs",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 504,
      "player_name": "Vuskovic",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 52,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 588,
      "player_name": "Khalaili",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Crystal Palace",
      "current_price": 50,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    }
  ],
  "selected_gw_plans": [
    {
      "gw": 9,
      "buys": [
        1,
        249,
        427
      ],
      "sells": [
        165,
        426,
        497
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        1,
        391,
        305,
        175,
        427,
        40,
        15,
        124,
        411,
        346,
        249
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        290,
        204,
        8
      ],
      "captain": 411,
      "vice_captain": 346,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 48.63147285717917
    },
    {
      "gw": 10,
      "buys": [
        4
      ],
      "sells": [
        8
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        1,
        4,
        391,
        305,
        427,
        15,
        124,
        40,
        411,
        249,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        204,
        175,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 4,
      "vice_captain": 411,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 54.33913067489811
    },
    {
      "gw": 11,
      "buys": [
        504
      ],
      "sells": [
        175
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        109,
        504,
        4,
        391,
        427,
        124,
        15,
        40,
        411,
        249,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        1,
        204,
        305,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 411,
      "vice_captain": 504,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 52.527488723258564
    },
    {
      "gw": 12,
      "buys": [
        588
      ],
      "sells": [
        391
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        1,
        588,
        504,
        4,
        204,
        427,
        124,
        15,
        346,
        249,
        411
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        305,
        40,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 346,
      "vice_captain": 588,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 51.41064998778977
    }
  ],
  "chip_decision": {
    "action": "save",
    "chip": null,
    "reason": "Save the valued chips this GW; the projected schedule favours later opportunities. Wildcard remains unassessed.",
    "evaluated_gws": [
      9,
      10,
      11,
      12,
      13,
      14,
      15,
      16,
      17,
      18,
      19
    ],
    "options": [
      {
        "chip": "3xc",
        "name": "Triple Captain",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 5.880235614972674,
        "best_gw": 16,
        "best_gain": 6.979466340507839,
        "planned_gw": 16,
        "planned_gain": 6.979466340507839,
        "reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
      },
      {
        "chip": "bboost",
        "name": "Bench Boost",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 10.2891637800231,
        "best_gw": 15,
        "best_gain": 11.89126134533826,
        "planned_gw": 15,
        "planned_gain": 11.89126134533826,
        "reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
      },
      {
        "chip": "freehit",
        "name": "Free Hit",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 4.876200619944754,
        "best_gw": 14,
        "best_gain": 7.693129700215991,
        "planned_gw": 14,
        "planned_gain": 7.693129700215991,
        "reason": "Free Hit needs transfer-plan review."
      },
      {
        "chip": "wildcard",
        "name": "Wildcard",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": null,
        "best_gw": null,
        "best_gain": null,
        "planned_gw": null,
        "planned_gain": null,
        "reason": "Manual review: Wildcard is not valued."
      }
    ],
    "assumptions": [
      "Uses the selected first-GW squad unchanged in future GWs; rerun after transfers or team news.",
      "Uses current availability and minutes estimates; future injury recovery is not forecast.",
      "Schedules at most one valued chip per GW within its availability window.",
      "Wildcard is not valued. Free Hit requires review because it changes and then restores the squad.",
      "Starting-XI EP and the transfer objective exclude chip effects; gains are reported separately."
    ]
  },
  "assumptions": [
    "Uses frozen prices, squad and projections; no transfer is executed.",
    "The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only.",
    "Objectives include GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties.",
    "Later GW transfers are provisional plans, not actions to take now."
  ]
}