Answer

Question

Using the full model over GW9 to GW12, with a 2-point transfer threshold and no hits allowed, should I transfer or hold for GW9? Give the gain, threshold, immediate buys and sells, starting XI, captain, vice-captain and ordered bench. Explain what period the gain covers.

completed trace 9101b737

Verdict: TRANSFER for GW9. (Frozen snapshot dated 28 October 2026, target GW9, full model, 0 hits allowed.)

Gain: 3.78 expected points (plan objective 183.52 vs hold objective 179.74)
Threshold: 2.0 — the gain exceeds it, so the model recommends making the transfers rather than holding
Hits: 0

Immediate GW9 moves

Buys: Raya (Arsenal, GKP), Barry (Everton, FWD), Mbeumo (Man Utd, MID)
Sells: Dubravka (Spurs, GKP), João Pedro (Chelsea, FWD), B. Fernandes (Man Utd, MID)

GW9 starting XI (48.6 EP): Raya; Gvardiol, Davis, van Ewijk; Mbeumo, Rogers, Ødegaard, Groß; Haaland, Calvert-Lewin, Barry

Captain: Haaland
Vice-captain: Calvert-Lewin
Ordered bench: 1. Verbruggen (GKP), 2. Slater, 3. Mitchell, 4. Calafiori

What the gain covers: The 3.78 points is the improvement over the whole four-GW horizon, GW9–GW12 — not GW9 alone. It compares the full multi-GW transfer plan against a hold plan that forbids transfers in GW9 only, and includes GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties (zero here). Note the later moves in the plan (GW10–12, e.g. Gabriel in for Calafiori in GW10) are provisional, not actions to take now.

Chip decision — save: No valued chip is recommended this GW; the projected schedule favours later opportunities (Triple Captain pencilled for GW16, Bench Boost GW15, Free Hit GW14 — all provisional). Wildcard remains unassessed.

All transfer and chip figures are recommendations only — nothing is executed.

Run

Status: completed
Target gameweek: GW9
Model: kimi-k3:cloud
Temperature: 1
Model calls: 2 of 4
Tool calls: 1
Latency: 15.2 s
Tokens: 5,279 in · 1,438 out
Snapshot ID: 20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty

Checks

Tool selectionpass
Argumentspass
Numberspass
Teamspass
Safetyn/a

Tool calls

1 get_recommendationcompleted

{
  "horizon": 4,
  "max_hits": 0,
  "model": "full",
  "threshold": 2
}

Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, actual_gws, threshold, allowed_hits, plan_objective, hold_objective, gain, make_transfers, players, selected_gw_plans, chip_decision, assumptions. Show full result

{
  "snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
  "as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "target_gw": 9,
  "model": "full",
  "actual_gws": [
    9,
    10,
    11,
    12
  ],
  "threshold": 2.0,
  "allowed_hits": 0,
  "plan_objective": 183.5197415136506,
  "hold_objective": 179.73781057376831,
  "gain": 3.7819309398822725,
  "make_transfers": true,
  "players": [
    {
      "element_id": 1,
      "player_name": "Raya",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 62,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 4,
      "player_name": "Gabriel",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 79,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 8,
      "player_name": "Calafiori",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 60,
      "status": "d",
      "news": "Hip injury - 75% chance of playing"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 15,
      "player_name": "Ødegaard",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 67,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 40,
      "player_name": "Rogers",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 80,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 109,
      "player_name": "Verbruggen",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 46,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 124,
      "player_name": "Groß",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 62,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 165,
      "player_name": "João Pedro",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 78,
      "status": "i",
      "news": "Thigh injury - Unknown return date"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 175,
      "player_name": "van Ewijk",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Coventry City",
      "current_price": 39,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 204,
      "player_name": "Mitchell",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Crystal Palace",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 249,
      "player_name": "Barry",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Everton",
      "current_price": 56,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 290,
      "player_name": "Slater",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Hull City",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 305,
      "player_name": "Davis",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Ipswich Town",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 346,
      "player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Leeds",
      "current_price": 61,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 391,
      "player_name": "Gvardiol",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 57,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 411,
      "player_name": "Haaland",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 158,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 426,
      "player_name": "B.Fernandes",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Man Utd",
      "current_price": 117,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 427,
      "player_name": "Mbeumo",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Man Utd",
      "current_price": 79,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 497,
      "player_name": "Dubravka",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Spurs",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 504,
      "player_name": "Vuskovic",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 52,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 588,
      "player_name": "Khalaili",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Crystal Palace",
      "current_price": 50,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    }
  ],
  "selected_gw_plans": [
    {
      "gw": 9,
      "buys": [
        1,
        249,
        427
      ],
      "sells": [
        165,
        426,
        497
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        1,
        391,
        305,
        175,
        427,
        40,
        15,
        124,
        411,
        346,
        249
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        290,
        204,
        8
      ],
      "captain": 411,
      "vice_captain": 346,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 48.63147285717917
    },
    {
      "gw": 10,
      "buys": [
        4
      ],
      "sells": [
        8
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        1,
        4,
        391,
        305,
        427,
        15,
        124,
        40,
        411,
        249,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        204,
        175,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 4,
      "vice_captain": 411,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 54.33913067489811
    },
    {
      "gw": 11,
      "buys": [
        504
      ],
      "sells": [
        175
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        109,
        504,
        4,
        391,
        427,
        124,
        15,
        40,
        411,
        249,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        1,
        204,
        305,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 411,
      "vice_captain": 504,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 52.527488723258564
    },
    {
      "gw": 12,
      "buys": [
        588
      ],
      "sells": [
        391
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        1,
        588,
        504,
        4,
        204,
        427,
        124,
        15,
        346,
        249,
        411
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        305,
        40,
        290
      ],
      "captain": 346,
      "vice_captain": 588,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 51.41064998778977
    }
  ],
  "chip_decision": {
    "action": "save",
    "chip": null,
    "reason": "Save the valued chips this GW; the projected schedule favours later opportunities. Wildcard remains unassessed.",
    "evaluated_gws": [
      9,
      10,
      11,
      12,
      13,
      14,
      15,
      16,
      17,
      18,
      19
    ],
    "options": [
      {
        "chip": "3xc",
        "name": "Triple Captain",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 5.880235614972674,
        "best_gw": 16,
        "best_gain": 6.979466340507839,
        "planned_gw": 16,
        "planned_gain": 6.979466340507839,
        "reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
      },
      {
        "chip": "bboost",
        "name": "Bench Boost",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 10.2891637800231,
        "best_gw": 15,
        "best_gain": 11.89126134533826,
        "planned_gw": 15,
        "planned_gain": 11.89126134533826,
        "reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
      },
      {
        "chip": "freehit",
        "name": "Free Hit",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 4.876200619944754,
        "best_gw": 14,
        "best_gain": 7.693129700215991,
        "planned_gw": 14,
        "planned_gain": 7.693129700215991,
        "reason": "Free Hit needs transfer-plan review."
      },
      {
        "chip": "wildcard",
        "name": "Wildcard",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": null,
        "best_gw": null,
        "best_gain": null,
        "planned_gw": null,
        "planned_gain": null,
        "reason": "Manual review: Wildcard is not valued."
      }
    ],
    "assumptions": [
      "Uses the selected first-GW squad unchanged in future GWs; rerun after transfers or team news.",
      "Uses current availability and minutes estimates; future injury recovery is not forecast.",
      "Schedules at most one valued chip per GW within its availability window.",
      "Wildcard is not valued. Free Hit requires review because it changes and then restores the squad.",
      "Starting-XI EP and the transfer objective exclude chip effects; gains are reported separately."
    ]
  },
  "assumptions": [
    "Uses frozen prices, squad and projections; no transfer is executed.",
    "The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only.",
    "Objectives include GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties.",
    "Later GW transfers are provisional plans, not actions to take now."
  ]
}