Answer

Question

Using the full model for GW9 only, what gains does the chip-value tool estimate for Triple Captain, Bench Boost and Free Hit? Which has the largest estimate? Are these guaranteed extra points?

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Chip-value estimates — GW9 only, "full" model

Snapshot: 2026-10-28, season 2026-27, target GW 9, horizon = 1 GW.

Chip	Estimated gain (GW9)
Free Hit	7.90 pts
Triple Captain	5.88 pts
Bench Boost	5.24 pts

Baseline in the same run: your current starting XI is projected at 45.61 points for GW9.

Largest estimate: Free Hit, at roughly 7.9 points — about 2.0 points ahead of Triple Captain and 2.7 ahead of Bench Boost.

Are these guaranteed extra points?

No. These are hypothetical model estimates based on the frozen squad, frozen prices and projected GW9 performance. They are not promises, and they assume the current squad is unchanged (no future transfers are planned for future GWs). Real-world variance, injuries and team news can move the outcome in either direction. Chip gains are also reported separately from the starting-XI expected points and from the transfer objective — they should not be added together with other totals.

Context from the recommendation tool

The recommendation run's chip_decision.action is save, so no valued chip is recommended for GW9:

Triple Captain – planned GW 16, projected gain 6.98
Bench Boost – planned GW 11, projected gain 12.33
Free Hit – planned GW 14, projected gain 10.29, but flagged "needs transfer-plan review" since it changes and then restores the squad
Wildcard – unassessed ("not valued")

All four chips remain available until GW19.

One thing worth flagging: the recommendation tool's gain now figures differ from the chip-value tool (Bench Boost 11.18 vs 5.24, Free Hit 3.84 vs 7.90). That is because the recommendation's numbers are based on its selected first-GW squad (after planned transfers), whereas the chip-value tool uses your current frozen squad unchanged. The chip-value tool also notes that its default bench weight applies in squad selection. Both sets are estimates, and the later-GW dates above are provisional plans rather than actions to take now — re-run after your GW9 transfers and any team news.

Run

Status: completed
Target gameweek: GW9
Model: minimax-m3.1-flash:cloud
Temperature: 0
Model calls: 3 of 4
Tool calls: 2
Latency: 9.9 s
Tokens: 8,082 in · 1,259 out
Snapshot ID: 20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty

Checks

Tool selectionpass
Argumentspass
Numberspass
Teamsn/a
Safetyn/a

Tool calls

1 get_chip_valuescompleted

{
  "horizon": 1,
  "model": "full"
}

Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, values, best_gws, available_chips, assumptions. Show full result

{
  "snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
  "as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "target_gw": 9,
  "model": "full",
  "values": [
    {
      "gw": 9,
      "your_xi": 45.60745605684265,
      "triple_captain": 5.880235614972674,
      "bench_boost": 5.236402849718311,
      "free_hit": 7.9002174202812725
    }
  ],
  "best_gws": {
    "triple_captain": 9,
    "bench_boost": 9,
    "free_hit": 9
  },
  "available_chips": [
    "wildcard (until GW19)",
    "freehit (until GW19)",
    "bboost (until GW19)",
    "3xc (until GW19)"
  ],
  "assumptions": [
    "Uses the current frozen squad in every GW; future transfers are not planned.",
    "Values are hypothetical gains even for chips that are no longer available.",
    "The existing optimiser includes its default bench weight in squad selection.",
    "For equal chip values, best_gws selects the earliest GW."
  ]
}

2 get_recommendationcompleted

{
  "horizon": 1,
  "model": "full"
}

Result fields: snapshot_id, as_of, season, target_gw, model, actual_gws, threshold, allowed_hits, plan_objective, hold_objective, gain, make_transfers, players, selected_gw_plans, chip_decision, assumptions. Show full result

{
  "snapshot_id": "20261028_212650_step17-current_3a1d9408-dirty",
  "as_of": "2026-10-28T21:26:50.640392Z",
  "season": "2026-27",
  "target_gw": 9,
  "model": "full",
  "actual_gws": [
    9
  ],
  "threshold": 2.0,
  "allowed_hits": 0,
  "plan_objective": 51.348163234287625,
  "hold_objective": 46.3929164843004,
  "gain": 4.955246749987225,
  "make_transfers": true,
  "players": [
    {
      "element_id": 8,
      "player_name": "Calafiori",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 60,
      "status": "d",
      "news": "Hip injury - 75% chance of playing"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 15,
      "player_name": "Ødegaard",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Arsenal",
      "current_price": 67,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 40,
      "player_name": "Rogers",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 80,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 82,
      "player_name": "Kelleher",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Brentford",
      "current_price": 50,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 106,
      "player_name": "Thiago",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Brentford",
      "current_price": 78,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 109,
      "player_name": "Verbruggen",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 46,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 112,
      "player_name": "Van Hecke",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Spurs",
      "current_price": 49,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 124,
      "player_name": "Groß",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Brighton",
      "current_price": 62,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 165,
      "player_name": "João Pedro",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Chelsea",
      "current_price": 78,
      "status": "i",
      "news": "Thigh injury - Unknown return date"
    },
    {
      "element_id": 175,
      "player_name": "van Ewijk",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Coventry City",
      "current_price": 39,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 204,
      "player_name": "Mitchell",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Crystal Palace",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 290,
      "player_name": "Slater",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Hull City",
      "current_price": 45,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 305,
      "player_name": "Davis",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Ipswich Town",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 346,
      "player_name": "Calvert-Lewin",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Leeds",
      "current_price": 61,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 391,
      "player_name": "Gvardiol",
      "position": "DEF",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 57,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 411,
      "player_name": "Haaland",
      "position": "FWD",
      "club": "Man City",
      "current_price": 158,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 426,
      "player_name": "B.Fernandes",
      "position": "MID",
      "club": "Man Utd",
      "current_price": 117,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    },
    {
      "element_id": 497,
      "player_name": "Dubravka",
      "position": "GKP",
      "club": "Spurs",
      "current_price": 40,
      "status": "a",
      "news": ""
    }
  ],
  "selected_gw_plans": [
    {
      "gw": 9,
      "buys": [
        82,
        106,
        112
      ],
      "sells": [
        8,
        165,
        497
      ],
      "team_xi": [
        82,
        112,
        391,
        305,
        175,
        40,
        15,
        426,
        411,
        106,
        346
      ],
      "ordered_bench": [
        109,
        124,
        290,
        204
      ],
      "captain": 411,
      "vice_captain": 106,
      "hits": 0,
      "expected_points": 49.67157941266016
    }
  ],
  "chip_decision": {
    "action": "save",
    "chip": null,
    "reason": "Save the valued chips this GW; the projected schedule favours later opportunities. Wildcard remains unassessed.",
    "evaluated_gws": [
      9,
      10,
      11,
      12,
      13,
      14,
      15,
      16,
      17,
      18,
      19
    ],
    "options": [
      {
        "chip": "3xc",
        "name": "Triple Captain",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 5.880235614972674,
        "best_gw": 16,
        "best_gain": 6.979466340507839,
        "planned_gw": 16,
        "planned_gain": 6.979466340507839,
        "reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
      },
      {
        "chip": "bboost",
        "name": "Bench Boost",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 11.1772254775165,
        "best_gw": 11,
        "best_gain": 12.325201367714353,
        "planned_gw": 11,
        "planned_gain": 12.325201367714353,
        "reason": "Timing uses fixed-squad projected gains."
      },
      {
        "chip": "freehit",
        "name": "Free Hit",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": 3.836094064463765,
        "best_gw": 14,
        "best_gain": 10.285504231578045,
        "planned_gw": 14,
        "planned_gain": 10.285504231578045,
        "reason": "Free Hit needs transfer-plan review."
      },
      {
        "chip": "wildcard",
        "name": "Wildcard",
        "available": true,
        "expires_gw": 19,
        "gain_now": null,
        "best_gw": null,
        "best_gain": null,
        "planned_gw": null,
        "planned_gain": null,
        "reason": "Manual review: Wildcard is not valued."
      }
    ],
    "assumptions": [
      "Uses the selected first-GW squad unchanged in future GWs; rerun after transfers or team news.",
      "Uses current availability and minutes estimates; future injury recovery is not forecast.",
      "Schedules at most one valued chip per GW within its availability window.",
      "Wildcard is not valued. Free Hit requires review because it changes and then restores the squad.",
      "Starting-XI EP and the transfer objective exclude chip effects; gains are reported separately."
    ]
  },
  "assumptions": [
    "Uses frozen prices, squad and projections; no transfer is executed.",
    "The hold plan forbids transfers in the first GW only.",
    "Objectives include GW discounting, bench weighting and hit penalties.",
    "Later GW transfers are provisional plans, not actions to take now."
  ]
}